Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 6.3% to 3.7% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
Greece-Turkey Military Engagement: Market Odds
Markets assign a 8.2% probability to a direct military engagement between Greece and Turkey, a level considered unlikely. The contract resolves Yes only if the use of force—such as artillery fire or missile strikes—is confirmed by credible reports.
8.2%+0.5 pts 24h
Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?
Updated · Volume $1.3M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31? | 8.2% | +0.5 |
| Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market prices a direct military clash as unlikely, with the No outcome dominating. The other listed scenarios are negligible long shots.
Context
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 7.4% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 5.0% to 8.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 3.9% to 8.4% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 28.1% to 4.1% — a 24.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 2.8% to 28.1% — a 25.3-point move over the past day.
The market assigns a 8.2% probability to a Greece-Turkey military engagement, which markets view as unlikely. The contract has traded in a range from 3.2% to 11.7%. A Yes resolution requires a military engagement between Greek and Turkish forces that involves the use of force—missile strikes, artillery fire, or exchanges of gunfire—by June 30, 2026. Warning shots, missiles that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, and intercepted projectiles do not qualify. Surface-to-air missiles that impact adversarial territory are also excluded, though firing upon an adversarial military aircraft would count. Intentional ship ramming causing significant damage (a hull breach or sinking) triggers a Yes, but minor scrapes do not. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. The contract settles solely on whether a qualifying incident occurs by June 30, 2026. The settlement deadline is Jan 1, 2027. Because the resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, any verifiable news of an engagement would quickly be reflected in the market price.
FAQ
What counts as a military engagement in this market?
It requires the use of force—such as missile strikes, artillery fire, or exchanges of gunfire—between Greek and Turkish military forces. Warning shots, intercepted missiles, or non-violent actions do not qualify.
Would a ship ramming incident trigger a Yes?
Only if it is intentional and causes significant damage, like a hole in the hull or sinking. Minor scrapes or dents are excluded.
How is the resolution determined?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If multiple reliable sources confirm a qualifying engagement, the market will settle to Yes.
Does a missile that is shot down count?
No. Intercepted missiles or drone strikes do not qualify, regardless of where they land or what damage they might have caused.
What about surface-to-air missiles?
Firing a surface-to-air missile at an adversarial military aircraft would count, but a surface-to-air missile that impacts territory (rather than an aircraft) does not trigger a Yes.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice