Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 22.9% to 13.8% — a 9.2-point move over the past day.
Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give Siga Batista a 16.0% chance of winning the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election, a race that could go to a second round if no candidate secures an absolute majority.
16.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
Updated · Volume $338.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 16.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 13.5% | +1.0 |
| Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 2.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.5% | 0.0 |
| Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.5% | 0.0 |
| Will João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.1% | +0.1 |
| Will another person win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Siga Batista is the unlikely frontrunner, while the remaining 11 outcomes are all long shots.
Context
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 10.6% to 23.4% — a 12.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 23.2% to 16.3% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 16.3% to 23.2% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 10.4% to 23.3% — a 12.8-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 16.7% — a 11.9-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 22.4% to 11.4% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: São Tomé and Príncipe heads to polls in tense presidential election — The Guardian
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 8.8% to 19.8% — a 10.9-point move over the past day.
The probability for Siga Batista stands at 16.0%. It has ranged from 1.1% to 23.2% over the period. This market resolves to the listed candidate who wins the election, including any second round. If no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round, a runoff follows a week later. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, the official results from the National Election Commission (CNE) take precedence. If no winner is known by Nov 23, 2025, the market resolves to 'Other'. Formal triggers that could move the odds include the first-round vote, the potential runoff, and any official announcements from the CNE. The long-stop date of Nov 23, 2025 acts as a safety valve, ensuring settlement even if the outcome is prolonged.
FAQ
What happens if no candidate wins outright in the first round?
A second round is held a week later between the top two candidates.
When will the market resolve?
It resolves once a winner is clear, based on a consensus of credible reporting or the CNE’s official results. If the result is delayed, there is a backstop date after which it resolves to 'Other'.
Who are the other candidates?
There are 11 other listed candidates, but collectively they are considered long shots.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice