Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election at 13.5%.

13.5%+2.2 pts 24h

Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

Updated · Volume $332.3K

0%7%14%20%Jun 14Jun 22Jun 29Jul 7Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?13.5%+2.2
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?5.7%+2.0
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?4.3%0.0
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?3.7%0.0
Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?2.3%+1.4
Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?1.6%-1.0
Will João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?0.5%-0.1
Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?0.5%0.0
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?0.1%
Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?0.1%
Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?0.1%
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?0.1%
Will another person win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?0.0%

The top 5 outcomes account for 29.4% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 13 tracked outcomes and $332.3K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election, is priced at 13.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice