Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 20.0% to 21.3% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give Siga Batista a 22.9% chance of winning the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election, a race that could go to a second round if no candidate secures an absolute majority.
22.9%-1.2 pts 24h
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
Updated · Volume $340.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 22.9% | -1.2 |
| Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 14.2% | +1.1 |
| Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 2.6% | -0.3 |
| Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.6% | -0.1 |
| Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.6% | -0.1 |
| Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.6% | -0.1 |
| Will João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.6% | -0.1 |
| Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.5% | -0.1 |
| Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.5% | -0.1 |
| Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 1.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another person win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Siga Batista is the unlikely frontrunner, while the remaining 11 outcomes are all long shots.
Context
Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 15.6% to 25.8% — a 10.2-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 15.6% to 21.4% — a 5.9-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 21.3% to 15.6% — a 5.8-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 21.3% to 15.6% — a 5.8-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Guinea-Bissau voters approve new constitution expanding presidential powers — The Guardian
Show earlier updates
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 19.7% to 21.4% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Guinea-Bissau referendum nods to expansion of presidential powers — Al Jazeera
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 13.5% to 21.1% — a 7.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Vote count starts in Guinea-Bissau referendum on strengthening presidency — Al Jazeera
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 22.9% to 13.8% — a 9.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 10.6% to 23.4% — a 12.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 23.2% to 16.3% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
The probability for Siga Batista stands at 22.9%. It has ranged from 11.8% to 29.6% over the period. This market resolves to the listed candidate who wins the election, including any second round. If no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round, a runoff follows a week later. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, the official results from the National Election Commission (CNE) take precedence. If no winner is known by Nov 23, 2025, the market resolves to 'Other'. Formal triggers that could move the odds include the first-round vote, the potential runoff, and any official announcements from the CNE. The long-stop date of Nov 23, 2025 acts as a safety valve, ensuring settlement even if the outcome is prolonged.
FAQ
What happens if no candidate wins outright in the first round?
A second round is held a week later between the top two candidates.
When will the market resolve?
It resolves once a winner is clear, based on a consensus of credible reporting or the CNE’s official results. If the result is delayed, there is a backstop date after which it resolves to 'Other'.
Who are the other candidates?
There are 11 other listed candidates, but collectively they are considered long shots.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice