Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31: Market odds
Prediction markets put the chance of Gustavo Petro being out as Colombia's leader by December 31 at 100.0% — a level widely considered near-certain.
Updated · Volume $401.3K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by August 7? | 100.0% | — |
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? | 100.0% | — |
| ARCH Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by August 31? | 0.0% | — |
| ARCH Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
The headline outcome, Petro’s removal by December 31, is near-certain, while all other scenarios remain negligible.
Context
The probability of Petro leaving office by the end of the year has moved sharply, and it now sits at 100.0%, which the market reads as near-certain. Total volume traded stands at $401.3K. The market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reporting confirms that Petro resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses the presidency for any length of time on or before the market's deadline. That deadline is Jun 30, 2026. A removal that begins after that date does not trigger a "Yes" outcome.
FAQ
How does this market determine if Petro is "out as leader"?
It resolves to "Yes" if credible reporting shows Petro resigned, was detained, or was otherwise prevented from performing his duties as president for any period of time before the deadline.
What happens if Petro leaves office after the deadline?
The market would resolve to "No". Only a removal on or before the specified date counts.
When is the final resolution?
The market settles after the end date based on the primary resolution source. The current end date is Jun 30, 2026.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice