Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 2.1% to 1.0% — a 1.1-point move over the past day.
Hengam Island No Longer Under Iranian Control: Probability
Markets price the chance of Hengam Island falling out of Iranian control by the resolution date at 0.6%, a level that signals the outcome is effectively ruled out. The contract only resolves if another power takes actual control, not on temporary military actions or claims.
0.6%0.0 pts 24h
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
Updated · Volume $208.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | 0.6% | 0.0 |
| Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market focuses on the possibility of Hengam Island leaving Iranian control by August 31; all other timing scenarios are considered long shots.
Context
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 9.5% to 2.6% — a 6.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 50.0% to 6.5% — a 43.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 3.6% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
The probability that Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by August 31 currently sits at 0.6%. It has traded in a range between 0.3% and 50.0% over the period tracked. Over the last 24 hours, it has shifted by 0.0 pts. Trading volume totals $208.5K. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if actual control of the island transfers from Iran to another state or internationally backed authority by the specified deadline. Temporary military actions—raids, landings, or bombardment—do not qualify. A transfer via negotiated settlement qualifies once control is established, not merely announced. If control remains contested or unclear when the deadline passes, the contract resolves to 'No'. Official statements from relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting, serve as the primary resolution sources. Any credible evidence of sustained occupation or an internationally recognized transfer would directly trigger the 'Yes' condition. Conversely, announcements or temporary disruptions that do not meet the strict control criteria have no effect on the outcome. The market's price can shift on reports consistent with the resolution sources: official government or military statements and a consensus of reporting. The resolution deadline is Oct 1, 2026.
FAQ
What does 'no longer under Iranian control' mean?
It means Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Do military raids or temporary disruptions count?
No. Temporary raids, landings, bombardment, sabotage, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity do not qualify. Actual control must be established.
What if control changes through a negotiated settlement?
A transfer via settlement, ceasefire, or agreement qualifies only once actual control is established on the island, not merely upon announcement.
What sources are used to determine the outcome?
The primary sources are official statements from relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
What happens if control is contested or unclear at the deadline?
The market resolves to 'No' if control has not been clearly established by the resolution date.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice