Sep 19, 2026
Probability rose from 2.9% to 7.6% — a 4.8-point move over the past day.
Houthi Military Action Against Israel: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of a qualifying Houthi military strike on Israel at 7.2%, a level that makes the event unlikely before the July 2026 deadline.
7.2%+3.6 pts 24h
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?
Updated · Volume $219.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026? | 7.2% | +3.6 |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 24, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 17, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome dominates the market at a remote probability, while the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 5.8% to 4.0% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
Around this time: What could stop the Houthis’ advance across Yemen? — Al Jazeera
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 4.8% to 6.2% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Fighting escalates in Yemen; Houthi attacks trigger alerts in Saudi Arabia — Al Jazeera
Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 7.8% to 3.3% — a 4.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Saudi-Houthi fighting in Yemen escalates: What happened, and what’s next? — Al Jazeera
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 1.7% to 7.1% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 1.7% to 6.3% — a 4.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability fell from 45.5% to 1.7% — a 43.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 23.5% to 47.5% — a 24.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 46.0% to 23.5% — a 22.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 48.5% to 23.5% — a 25.0-point move over the past day.
The market’s main contract shows little fluctuation. A qualifying action is an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike by the Houthis that hits Israeli territory directly. Intercepted munitions, naval shelling, artillery, short-range drones, and ground incursions do not count. The market resolves to “Yes” only if such a strike occurs by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time; otherwise it resolves to “No.”
The resolution sources—official statements from Israel and the Houthis, along with credible media reports—could trigger price changes if new claims or evidence emerge. The deadline itself adds urgency as time passes.
FAQ
What exactly counts as a qualifying military action?
Only an air strike (bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones) or a surface-to-surface missile strike (including cruise/ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones) that hits Israeli territory. Anything intercepted or destroyed beforehand does not qualify.
Which territories are considered Israeli ground territory?
The internationally recognized land of Israel, plus the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem. The West Bank and Gaza Strip are excluded.
Why aren’t intercepted munitions counted?
The rules explicitly exclude any munition that is destroyed before impact. Debris from an interception does not count either.
How are disputes about a strike resolved?
The market relies on a consensus of official Israeli and Houthi statements and credible reporting. If reports conflict, it waits up to three days for clarity before resolving on the totality of available information.
What about rocket artillery or short-range drones?
These are specifically excluded. The market requires a more substantial air or missile strike.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice