Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 83.7% to 76.2% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
How Many Countries Will Israel Strike in 2026?
Prediction markets assign a 77.4% likelihood to the prospect of Israel striking exactly four countries in 2026, an assessment that is the favored outcome. The tally excludes operations in Gaza and the West Bank, and counts embassy strikes as hits on the host nation.
77.4%+0.6 pts 24h
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
Updated · Volume $7.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? | 77.4% | +0.6 |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | 5.0% | -1.4 |
| Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? | 4.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026? | 2.5% | +1.2 |
| Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? | 1.9% | +0.5 |
| Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? | 1.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? | 1.3% | +0.3 |
| Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026? | 1.1% | +1.0 |
| Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026? | 0.7% | +0.5 |
| Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026? | 0.6% | +0.5 |
| Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? | 0.5% | +0.4 |
| Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Israel strike 1 country in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Israel strike 0 countries in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market sees four countries as the most likely count, while the case for five countries carries a substantial minority view; all other totals are considered long shots.
Context
Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 86.6% to 76.8% — a 9.8-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 76.1% to 84.2% — a 8.1-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 76.1% to 81.1% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 77.3% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 81.9% to 79.0% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 77.4% to 83.9% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 77.0% to 81.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 58.3% to 65.1% — a 6.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 58.6% to 61.5% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
Trading in the contract tracking a four-country event has settled at 77.4%, having oscillated between 72.7% and 86.6% over the tracked period. In recent trading, the price moved +0.6 pts in the last day. To meet the market’s criteria, a strike must be an aerial bomb, drone, or missile launched by Israel’s military that lands on the ground of another sovereign state. The incident needs to be acknowledged by Israeli authorities or confirmed through a consensus of credible reporting. Intercepted projectiles and surface-to-air missiles are excluded, as are artillery, small arms fire, and any ground-based operations. A strike on an embassy or consulate is attributed to the country where the building is located. Attacks within Israeli-controlled territory, the Gaza Strip, or the West Bank are not included in the tally. The market covers the full calendar year, with resolution occurring after the close of 2026 on Jan 1, 2027. Each fresh report of a qualifying strike nudges the expected number higher, and the final count will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting. Because the market is driven by news flow, the speed and reliability of verified incidents during the year will shape the price.
FAQ
What counts as a strike under this market?
It must be an aerial bomb, drone, or missile—including cruise and ballistic variants—launched by the Israel Defense Forces that impacts another country’s territory. Official Israeli acknowledgment or a consensus of credible reporting is required.
Are intercepted missiles or surface-to-air attacks included?
No. Projectiles that are shot down do not qualify, and surface-to-air missiles are excluded even if they cross borders or cause damage.
Do strikes in Gaza or the West Bank count?
No. Strikes within Gaza, the West Bank, or any territory controlled by Israel as of the end of 2025 are excluded.
How is a strike on an embassy treated?
It is counted against the host country—the nation where the embassy or consulate is physically located—not the country it represents.
Who determines the final tally?
A consensus of credible reporting at the end of 2026 will decide the outcome, summing all qualifying strikes between January 1 and December 31.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice