Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 59.9% to 63.9% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Number of Countries Targeted by US Strikes in 2026: Live Odds
Prediction markets price Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026 at 62.8%.
62.8%-3.3 pts 24h
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
Updated · Volume $1.6M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | 62.8% | -3.3 |
| Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? | 28.2% | 0.0 |
| Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? | 5.8% | +3.1 |
| Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? | 3.0% | +1.4 |
| Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? | 0.9% | +0.1 |
| Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? | 0.9% | -0.1 |
| Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the US strike 1 country in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the US strike 3 countries in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the US strike 2 countries in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the US strike 0 countries in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the US strike 5 countries in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 98.5% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 60.0% to 63.5% — a 3.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 58.9% to 61.0% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 61.3% to 58.9% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 60.9% to 58.8% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 58.5% to 61.1% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 54.6% to 61.4% — a 6.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 63.6% to 56.1% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 63.6% to 56.8% — a 6.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 50.4% to 60.6% — a 10.2-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 16 tracked outcomes and $1.6M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026, is priced at 62.8%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice