Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 13.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
IAEA Inspectors' Visit to Iran Nuclear Sites: Probability
Markets give IAEA inspectors a 13.5% chance of physically visiting one of three major Iranian nuclear sites before Jan 1, 2027.
13.5%-0.5 pts 24h
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?
Updated · Volume $376.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | 13.5% | -0.5 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | 3.5% | -0.1 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome (a visit by the end of the year) is priced as a minority chance, while the earlier October deadline is seen as unlikely; the remaining expiry dates are long shots.
Context
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 23.5% to 13.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 36.0% to 25.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability fell from 52.5% to 34.0% — a 18.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 27.5% to 52.5% — a 25.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 26.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 24.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 19.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The market's assessment has shown variability, with the current reading at 13.5%. The contract resolves to 'Yes' if one or more IAEA officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or the Natanz Nuclear Facility before the expiry. The visit must involve physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of these sites; virtual inspections, visits to other locations in Iran, or visits to the separate Pickaxe Mountain area do not qualify. IAEA officials are defined as individuals acting in an official capacity, including inspectors, staff, and the Director General. The resolution relies on official IAEA statements and a consensus of credible reporting. The market's price reflects the likelihood that a qualifying visit occurs before the deadline Jan 1, 2027. Any official confirmation from the IAEA or credible press reports of a physical visit to one of the listed sites would settle the market to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No' at expiry. No other scheduled events affect the outcome directly; the key conditions are time, location, and the physical-access requirement.
FAQ
What constitutes a qualifying visit for this market?
A visit qualifies if one or more IAEA officials physically enter the boundaries of the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility. Virtual inspections or visits to other Iranian sites do not count.
Who counts as an IAEA official?
The market covers individuals acting in an official capacity for the IAEA, such as inspectors, staff members, or the Director General.
How is the resolution determined?
Resolution is based on official statements from the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting. If a qualifying visit is confirmed by these sources, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.
Does a visit to the Pickaxe Mountain area near Natanz count?
No. The market explicitly excludes Pickaxe Mountain from the recognized boundaries of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice