Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Iran Agreeing to End Uranium Enrichment: Market Odds
As of 8 min ago, prediction markets price the chance that Iran agrees to end all uranium enrichment by September 30 at 0.9%. The market resolves based on whether Iran makes an official pledge, as reported by credible sources.
0.9%-0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $73.9K
Attention centers on the 'Yes' outcome, which stands at effectively ruled out probability. The alternative scenario—no agreement by the deadline—is the market's baseline.
Context
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 4.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
The market now stands at 0.9%. This market resolves 'Yes' if Iran publicly agrees to end all uranium enrichment by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The pledge may come as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement made before the deadline counts, even if its implementation is delayed. Agreements to merely limit enrichment levels or cap quality do not qualify. The resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. The primary formal condition is the resolution deadline of Sep 30, 2026. Any official pledge by Iran before that date, as verified by credible reporting, would settle the market. No other scheduled events or triggers are specified in the market rules.
FAQ
What qualifies as an agreement to end enrichment?
An official pledge by Iran to halt all uranium enrichment, whether unilateral or part of a deal, counts. Mere caps on enrichment levels or reductions to below weapons-grade do not qualify.
Does a conditional agreement count?
Yes, any pledge to end enrichment—even as a precondition for broader talks—qualifies if made before the resolution date.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves soon after Iran makes a qualifying announcement, or after the deadline passes without an agreement. The official resolution date is Sep 30, 2026.
Who determines the outcome?
The market uses a consensus of credible reporting to decide whether an agreement has occurred.
What if the agreement is not implemented?
The market looks for the pledge, not implementation. An agreement to end enrichment for any period qualifies, regardless of follow-through.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice