Will Iran Agree to Surrender Enriched Uranium?

Traders on this platform are assessing whether Iran will publicly pledge to hand over some or all of its enriched uranium stockpile to outside control. The bet settles as Yes if, by Dec 31, 2026, Iranian authorities make an official commitment—unilateral or as part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel—to transfer any quantity of enriched uranium to an entity beyond Tehran’s influence. Non-state allies such as Hezbollah or the Houthis are excluded as recipients. Mere promises to cap enrichment or reduce it to non-weapons-grade do not suffice: the uranium must physically leave Iran’s grip. As of 9 min ago, the contract trades at 14.5%, which the market interprets as an unlikely event. Trading volume has reached $17.3M, and the price has swung between 12.5% and 33.5% over the tracked period. Over the past 24 hours, the probability moved +1.0 pts. The narrow focus on one headline contract—other expiration dates exist but attract minimal interest—suggests that participants see the core question as the real hurdle, rather than fine-grained timing distinctions. The resolution rules are specific: to count, the agreement must be public and cover at least a portion of the stockpile, and it can be struck at any point before the deadline, even if the actual transfer occurs later. The market will look to a consensus of credible reporting to determine the outcome. Because the question demands an explicit surrender pledge rather than a negotiated cap, the bar is high, and the market’s pricing reflects that.