Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 7.5% to 2.4% — a 5.1-point move over the past day.
Iran Withdrawal from MOU Negotiations: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26 at 0.0%.
0.0%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26?
Updated · Volume $9.7M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 7.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 7.5% to 4.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran: Currently no negotiations with the US — Al Jazeera
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 27.5% to 18.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: War on Iran: War resumes 30 days after MoU — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 29.0% to 13.5% — a 15.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 22.5% to 32.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 42.0% to 24.0% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 8 tracked outcomes and $9.7M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26, is priced at 0.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice