Iran Withdrawal from MOU Talks by August 15: Live Odds

The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 14, 2026, that paused immediate hostilities and established a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market asks whether Iran will publicly announce a definitive withdrawal from that negotiation process before a series of deadlines. Resolution depends solely on an official, unequivocal statement of termination; temporary suspensions, conditional pullbacks, or boycotts of specific meetings do not qualify. Markets currently price a 38.5% chance that such an announcement arrives by the final date of August 15—a a substantial minority view assessment. The probability narrows considerably for earlier dates: July 31 is at 27.5% (a substantial minority view), July 24 at 21.0% (a substantial minority view), and July 17 at 12.8% (unlikely). With the MOU's 60-day clock expiring in early August, the August 15 deadline falls just outside that window, making it the final practical moment for a withdrawal to be counted. The earlier dates lie within the negotiation period, where traders see a lower but still meaningful chance of an announcement. The contract has traded as high as 46.5% and as low as 10.5% since inception, with $5.2M in total volume. Over the past day, the probability shifted by +2.0 pts. Once an official termination notice is issued—even if quickly reversed—the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must come through authorized channels and explicitly declare an end to the negotiation process as a whole. Indirect signals or unattributed reports are not sufficient.