Iran Leadership Change by June 2027: Market Probability
Prediction markets give a 30.5% chance that Mojtaba Khamenei will no longer be Iran’s de facto leader by June 30, 2027, a view that is a substantial minority view. The remaining contracts reveal a market that grows more skeptical the shorter the time horizon.
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
Updated · Volume $19.6M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | 30.5% | +4.0 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | 22.5% | -0.5 |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? | 12.5% | -0.5 |
| Iran leadership change by July 31? | 4.0% | -0.2 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | 0.0% | — |
The market prices a change by June 30, 2027 as a substantial minority view, while shorter-dated windows are more cautious: the December 31 contract is a substantial minority view and the September 30 contract is unlikely. The remaining earlier expiry dates are all long shots.
Context
This market resolves to “Yes” if Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader at any point before the listed date—whether through removal, detention, resignation, or being otherwise prevented from acting. An official announcement of departure qualifies even if the departure itself takes effect later. The primary source for resolution is a consensus of credible reporting. Traders currently see a leadership change by June 30, 2027 as a substantial minority view, with the probability standing at 30.5%. Shorter-dated contracts are priced more cautiously: the chance of a change by December 31 is 22.5% (a substantial minority view), and the September 30 window is even lower at 12.5% (unlikely). The remaining six earlier expiry dates are all long shots, indicating that markets expect any potential transition to occur over a multi-year timeframe. The steep discount in nearer-dated contracts suggests that an immediate transition is seen as unlikely, while the longer horizon allows for more political and institutional developments to unfold. Over the past day, the headline probability has moved by +4.0 pts. It has fluctuated between 22.5% and 43.0% in recent trading. Total volume stands at $19.6M. These probabilities are derived from trading activity and reflect the collective judgment of market participants, not a polling or forecast model.
FAQ
What event triggers a 'Yes' resolution?
The market resolves to 'Yes' if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be Iran’s de facto leader at any point before the applicable expiry date. This includes removal from power, detention, resignation, or any other loss of his position. An official announcement of his departure qualifies even if the actual departure is later.
How is the outcome determined?
The primary source is a consensus of credible reporting. The market does not rely on a single official statement but on widely accepted factual reporting.
What timeframes does the market cover?
The market includes multiple expiry dates. The longest is June 30, 2027, with shorter windows ending on December 31 and September 30 among others. Each contract represents a cumulative 'by that date' probability.
What does the current probability indicate?
As of the latest data (updated 9 min ago), the headline chance stands at 30.5%, meaning the market sees a change by June 2027 as a substantial minority view. Shorter-dated odds are lower, suggesting time is a key factor in the market's assessment.
What is the market’s activity level?
Trading volume has reached $19.6M, with an intraday range of 22.5% to 43.0%. Over 24 hours, the probability has moved by +4.0 pts.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice