Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 22.5% to 34.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Iran Leadership Change: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027 at 25.5%.
25.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
Updated · Volume $24.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | 25.5% | +1.0 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | 16.5% | 0.0 |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | 10.5% | 0.0 |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? | 2.5% | -1.0 |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? | 0.1% | -0.2 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran leadership change by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran leadership change by August 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Iran leadership change by August 22? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.8% of the total probability.
Context
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 20.5% to 30.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 36.5% to 22.0% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 38.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 39.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 43.5% to 37.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 30.5% to 43.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 14 tracked outcomes and $24.4M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027, is priced at 25.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice