Iran–Gulf State Military Action: Market Odds by Date
Prediction markets give a 100.0% probability to Iran striking a Gulf state with an air or missile attack on the first date in the series, a level that traders treat as near-certain. Even the next contract—an earlier calendar day—trades at a similarly near-certain 100.0%.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?
Updated · Volume $1.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | 100.0% | +31.5 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? | 100.0% | +28.3 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? | 90.0% | +17.5 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14? | 89.0% | +38.5 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15? | 72.0% | +32.0 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16? | 54.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17? | 51.5% | +21.0 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19? | 44.5% | +22.0 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18? | 44.0% | +15.5 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25? | 32.5% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20? | 31.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21? | 31.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23? | 28.5% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22? | 26.5% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24? | 25.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26? | 23.5% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? | 21.5% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27? | 21.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30? | 20.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28? | 19.5% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29? | 19.5% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11? | 4.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10? | 0.0% | — |
The probability distribution falls off sharply after the initial two near-certain contracts (100.0% and 100.0%). Later dates see a clear downgrade, with the third at 90.0% (strongly favored) and the farthest dropping to a a substantial minority view 31.0%.
Context
This market asks whether Iran will launch a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike against Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates on a specific date. A qualifying action means bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, or surface-to-surface missiles—including cruise and ballistic types—that directly hit a Gulf State’s terrestrial territory or internal waters. Intercepted munitions, debris, and naval or ground attacks do not count. The headline contract—the first in the series—is priced at 100.0%, meaning the market sees action on that day as near-certain. The second contract, though its calendar date falls earlier, trades essentially in lockstep at 100.0% (near-certain). This clustering suggests traders concentrate risk on a narrow window. Beyond those two, the curve declines. The third date drops to 90.0%, making it strongly favored, and the fourth eases to 89.0%, still strongly favored. The fifth contract sits at 72.0%—the favored outcome but no longer at commanding levels. A cluster of contracts in the middle of the listed series hover near levels best described as close to a coin flip, close to a coin flip, and close to a coin flip, with finely balanced assessments between 54.0%, 51.5%, and 44.5%. Towards the end, probabilities thin out: the ninth contract registers 44.0%, which qualifies as close to a coin flip, while the tenth and eleventh land at 32.5% and 31.0%, similarly described as a substantial minority view and a substantial minority view. The farthest-out date draws only 31.0%, a a substantial minority view. The distribution implies a strong belief that if military action comes, it will happen very soon. The rapid fall-off after the first two dates suggests traders think Iran either acts promptly or the moment passes. Total volume across these contracts sits around $1.4M. The market is set to resolve after the final date, Jul 31, 2026, though a resolution could occur earlier if a qualifying strike is confirmed.
FAQ
What counts as a qualifying military action?
An air strike (including bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones) or a surface-to-surface missile strike (including one-way attack drones and cruise or ballistic missiles) that directly hits the terrestrial territory or internal waters of a Gulf State. Intercepted munitions, debris, naval fire, ground incursions, cyber operations, and minor strikes like short-range loitering munitions or ATGMs are excluded.
Which countries are considered Gulf States for this market?
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
How does the market handle intercepted munitions?
Any munition destroyed or intercepted before impact does not constitute a qualifying action, even if debris or fragments land on a Gulf State and cause damage.
How is the market resolved?
Resolution is determined by a consensus of information from official Iranian and Gulf State government sources and credible reporting. If reports conflict, the market remains open for three calendar days after the first credible evidence, then resolves on the totality of information available.
What is the current probability for the first listed date?
The first contract trades at 100.0%, implying that markets consider a strike on that date to be near-certain.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice