Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 26.0% to 100.0% — a 74.0-point move over the past day.
Iran–Gulf State Military Action: Market Odds by Date
Prediction markets have settled Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $2.7M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19? | 100.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? | 100.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14? | 100.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18? | 100.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30? | 100.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | 100.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20? | 100.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17? | 100.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? | 1.1% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16? | 0.0% | — |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 11.5% to 100.0% — a 88.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Why is Iran bombing Gulf states while avoiding US naval assets and Israel? — Al Jazeera
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 93.0% to 100.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: What does Iran’s attack on Kuwait infrastructure mean for Gulf? — Al Jazeera
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 63.5% to 100.0% — a 36.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Gulf states come under Iranian fire as US strikes intensify — Al Jazeera
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 90.6% to 100.0% — a 9.4-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US launches new attacks on Iran as Tehran targets Gulf sites — Al Jazeera
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice