Will Iran Test a Nuclear Weapon Before 2027?
Markets price the chance of an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 at 5.6%, which is unlikely. The contract covers any intentional nuclear detonation by Iran through the end of 2026.
Updated · Volume $257.9K
The “Yes” outcome is unlikely, making the “No” outcome the overwhelming favorite.
Context
The contract currently trades at 5.6%. Over the past day the price shifted +0.6 pts. The market resolves to “Yes” if Iran intentionally detonates a device that produces a nuclear chain reaction—fission or fusion—of any yield, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm ET. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (dirty bombs), and actions by third parties are excluded. Unclaimed tests can still trigger a “Yes” if a broad consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran; the 1979 Vela Incident is cited as a precedent for such a case. The contract’s price could shift if credible reports emerge of a suspected test that meets the definition, or as the Jan 1, 2027 deadline approaches without incident. The resolution source is a broad consensus of credible reporting, which means that official Iranian statements are not necessary to settle the market.
FAQ
What qualifies as a nuclear test for this market?
The intentional detonation by Iran of a device that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices, and actions by third parties are excluded.
Does Iran need to claim the test?
No. An unclaimed nuclear detonation may still resolve the market to “Yes” if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the event to Iran. The 1979 Vela Incident is given as an example.
How is the market resolved?
The resolution is based on a broad consensus of credible reporting, not necessarily an official declaration by Iran. Credible reporting is the definitive source.
When does the market close?
The market covers events through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm Eastern Time. Any test that occurs after that date does not count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice