Iran Shipping Attack Odds: Live Prediction Market

The prediction market tracks whether Iranian forces conduct a qualifying attack on a commercial vessel on a given calendar day, in IRST. The rules are tightly drawn. Only kinetic actions—direct strikes or physical seizure—count. Missile or drone attacks that are intercepted, or those conducted by proxy groups such as Hezbollah or the Houthis, do not meet the criteria. Resolution depends on credible reporting, with the possibility of a three-day extension if attribution or exact timing cannot be confirmed by the end of the target date. As of 10 min ago, the market shows a steep gradient. The earliest date, June 27, is near-certain at 100.0%. July 7 registers a near-identical conviction at near-certain (100.0%). Confidence declines across the next week: July 12 stands at 96.4% and is near-certain, while July 14 is strongly favored (94.9%). A tight cluster appears in the middle of July. The 13th, 15th, and 16th all hover around the midpoint, with probabilities of 41.0%, 57.0%, and 39.0% respectively. These outcomes are finely balanced, reflecting substantial uncertainty about whether any action will spill into those dates. July 17 falls to a substantial minority view at 24.3%. The picture shifts dramatically for other dates. July 1, 9, 10, and 11 are all priced as remote tails: the market assigns them probabilities of 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, and 4.5%, each effectively ruled out. The steep decline in probabilities after early July shows traders expect the bulk of the risk to concentrate in the first few days. Total trading volume stands at $1.0M. The data was last refreshed 10 min ago.