Oct 13, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 4.0% — a 1.1-point move over the past day.
Will Israel and Indonesia normalize relations? Odds and analysis
As of 10 min ago, prediction markets assign a 5.1% probability to Israel and Indonesia normalizing relations by December 31, 2026, a level traders consider unlikely.
5.1%+0.4 pts 24h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $3.5M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | 5.1% | +0.4 |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The price centers on the prospect of normalization, with the alternative scenario priced at a negligible level.
Context
Oct 8, 2026
Probability fell from 5.6% to 2.5% — a 3.1-point move over the past day.
Oct 7, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 2.6% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
Oct 5, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 4.0% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
The forecast settled at 5.1%, with markets viewing the outcome as unlikely. Trading has ranged from 2.2% to 12.0%. The market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if both countries officially announce the establishment of diplomatic ties by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If no such announcement occurs by then, it resolves to ‘No’. Resolution relies primarily on official government information, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. The price reflects the time left until Jan 1, 2027 and the requirement for an official announcement. Any indication of formal diplomatic progress—or its absence—directly affects the odds, as settlement hinges entirely on an announcement by the deadline.
FAQ
What is the deadline for normalization?
The market requires an official announcement by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
What counts as normalizing relations?
Both Israel and Indonesia must officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations. The primary resolution source is official information from both governments, but credible media reports may also be considered.
What happens if only one country makes an announcement?
The market requires official announcements from both Israel and Indonesia. If only one side confirms, the market would resolve to ‘No.’
Can the market resolve based on media reports alone?
Yes, if there is a consensus of credible reporting, even without an official statement, the market can resolve to ‘Yes.’
What if relations are normalized after the deadline?
Any announcement after the deadline will not count; the market will have already resolved to ‘No.’
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice