Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 6.5% to 16.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Israel-Syria Normalization: Live Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the likelihood of an Israel-Syria diplomatic breakthrough at 11.0% unlikely. The market requires official announcements from both nations by the end of 2025 to settle to ‘Yes’.
11.0%0.0 pts 24h
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $2.1M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | 11.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The ‘Yes’ outcome draws the most attention, while the other market scenarios are long shots.
Context
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 6.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
The probability of normalization remains unlikely, sitting at 11.0%. It has traded between 8.5% and 14.5% over the tracked period, with a 0.0 pts move in the last day. The market resolves to “Yes” if both Israel and Syria officially announce diplomatic relations by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it settles to “No.” The primary resolution source is official information from the two countries, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used if official word is lacking. The formal conditions that determine the outcome are the deadline of Dec 31, 2026 and the arrival of an official announcement. Resolution depends on statements from Israel and Syria, or on credible reporting if those are absent. Any indication that such an announcement is imminent—or definitively off the table—would directly affect the probability.
FAQ
What will cause the market to resolve to ‘Yes’?
It resolves to ‘Yes’ if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by the deadline of Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
What happens if only one country makes an announcement?
The market requires both nations to announce. An announcement by only one side would not be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution.
What sources are used to determine the outcome?
The primary sources are official information from Israel and Syria. If official word is ambiguous, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Does the market consider informal ties or partial agreements?
No. The resolution condition is the official establishment of diplomatic relations, as per the market’s description.
When does the market resolve?
If no announcement occurs by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to ‘No’. It may resolve earlier if both countries announce ties before the deadline.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice