Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Israel Airspace Closure by August 31? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Israel closes its airspace by September 30 at 97.5%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Israel closes its airspace by September 30Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $30.6M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | 97.5% | +0.9 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 7? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 10? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 11? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 12? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 24? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 14? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 8? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 13? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Context
Aug 3, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 18.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 31.5% to 21.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 25.5% to 42.5% — a 17.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 25.5% to 37.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 39.0% to 26.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability fell from 47.5% to 38.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 54.0% to 42.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 38.5% to 45.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 41.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice