Israel Airspace Closure by August 31: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see a substantial minority probability, 29.5%, that Israel closes its airspace by August 31. The tighter July 31 deadline is considered unlikely.
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
Updated · Volume $22.3M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | 29.5% | -5.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | 17.5% | -1.0 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | 2.1% | -1.9 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 12? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 14? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 7? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 13? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 8? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 11? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 10? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 24? | 0.0% | — |
The August 31 deadline is the clear focal point, with the July 31 outcome an outside chance and all other scenarios negligible.
Context
The probability of a major Israeli airspace closure by August 31 currently sits at 29.5%. It has ranged between 12.0% and 36.5% over the market’s lifetime. Over the last day, the measure shifted by -5.0 pts. Total trading volume stands at $22.3M. For a “Yes” resolution, the closure must be broad—applying generally to all commercial flights across the entirety or a majority of Israeli civilian airspace. Limited cancellations, temporary ground stops, or regional restrictions do not qualify. Weather-related closures are excluded, as are flight suspensions imposed by airlines or other countries. The market resolves on May 31, 2026 unless a qualifying closure occurs earlier. The primary resolution source is official information from Israeli aviation authorities, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be sufficient.
FAQ
What constitutes a major closure of Israeli airspace?
It must be a broad closure of commercial aviation across the entirety or a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, generally applying to all flights. Limited cancellations or temporary ground stops do not qualify.
Are closures caused by weather or foreign airlines counted?
No. Closures due solely to weather are excluded, and restrictions imposed by airlines or other countries are not sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves on or before the specified date if a qualifying closure takes place. Otherwise, it resolves to “No” after the deadline.
Who determines whether a closure has occurred?
The primary source is official Israeli aviation authorities, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice