Israel Ground Operation in Iran: Odds & Probability

The headline probability currently sits at 12.5%, reflecting unlikely. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Israeli military personnel participate in a ground operation on Iranian territory on or after February 28, 2026, and that participation is confirmed by the market's close at Jan 1, 2027. A ground operation requires Israeli forces to be physically on the ground; aerial, maritime, or remote operations do not qualify. Confirmation must come from an official Israeli military statement or from an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The market's description offers examples: a statement by the IDF Chief of Staff confirming commando forces operated inside Iran during the 12-day war would suffice, while statements about Mossad activity or assassinations would not. The key date is Jan 1, 2027, when the market will resolve unless an earlier confirmation triggers immediate settlement. Operations before February 28, 2026, are excluded, so the window runs from that date to Jan 1, 2027. Any official Israeli military confirmation or a consensus of credible reports about ground operations inside Iran during this window would sharply increase the probability. Conversely, the absence of such confirmation as Jan 1, 2027 approaches would push the number towards zero.