Israel Ground Operation in Iran: Odds & Probability

This market assesses whether Israeli military ground forces will conduct operations inside Iranian territory, as confirmed by official Israeli military statements or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Purely aerial, naval, cyber, or intelligence-led efforts—including Mossad or Shin Bet activities—are excluded. The trigger is confined to Israeli troops on the ground in Iran on or after 28 February 2026, with confirmation required by 31 May 2026. Trading activity around these questions has generated roughly $1.57 million in volume. The outcome breakdown reveals a starkly low perceived risk of an imminent operation. Probabilities stand at 0% for each month through June 2026, meaning traders see virtually no chance of ground incursions in the first half of the year. By July 2026 the figure inches up to 3.7%, and by the end of December 2026 it reaches 18.5%. This spread suggests that even the modest chance trades assign to the event is concentrated in the latter part of the year, well after the confirmation deadline for the primary market. The 18.5% reading reflects a separate but related question on whether an operation will occur by year-end, regardless of when it is officially acknowledged. The contrast between the 0% readings for spring months and the 18.5% for the full year points to a market consensus that any ground operation, if it materialises, would not happen quickly. The near-uniform zeros through June indicate little disagreement among traders about the immediate future. A total volume of over $1.5 million shows enough liquidity to take such readings seriously, though the wide gap between short- and long-dated probabilities leaves room for shifts if geopolitical conditions change.