Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 17.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Israel Military Action Against Greater Beirut by August 31: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance of an Israeli air or missile strike hitting Greater Beirut by the end of August at 16.0%. That makes the prospect unlikely.
16.0%-4.0 pts 24h
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?
Updated · Volume $366.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31? | 16.0% | -4.0 |
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30? | 7.0% | +1.5 |
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 14? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 21? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Yes outcome dominates trading; the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 50.0% to 22.5% — a 27.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 10.5% to 35.0% — a 24.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 17.0% to 7.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 16.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 39.5% to 23.5% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 50.5% to 40.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 3.6% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 8.4% — a 13.6-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Why has Israel escalated attacks in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire? — Al Jazeera
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 6.5% to 16.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: At scene of deadly Israeli strike on Lebanon home — Al Jazeera
The market has traded between 17.0% and 50.5% over its lifetime. 16.0% now sits -4.0 pts from a day ago,. The contract resolves to Yes if Israel carries out a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut before 11:59 pm Israel Daylight Time on August 31. Qualifying actions are limited to air strikes (bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones) or surface-to-surface missile strikes (including cruise and ballistic missiles, and one-way attack drones) that directly impact the continuous urbanized zone encompassing the Beirut Governorate and adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities as defined by a specific 2014 academic map. Intercepted munitions, debris, ground operations, naval gunfire, artillery, and short-range tactical strikes are all excluded from consideration. The resolution deadline is August 31, at which point the market settles on the basis of a consensus of official statements from Israeli and Lebanese governments and militaries, along with credible reporting. If reports conflict, the market may stay open for up to three extra days to allow a clearer picture to emerge.
FAQ
What exactly counts as a qualifying military action?
Only an Israeli air strike (bombs, air-to-surface missiles, or air-launched drones) or a surface-to-surface missile strike (including cruise or ballistic missiles, and one-way attack drones) that physically impacts Greater Beirut qualifies. Strikes intercepted before impact, debris, naval gunfire, artillery, and short-range weapons do not count.
How is Greater Beirut defined for this market?
The boundaries are taken from a 2014 academic map of the Greater Beirut Area, covering the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent urbanized coastal and suburban parts of Mount Lebanon Governorate. Strikes outside that map’s borders do not qualify.
What happens if a strike’s location is disputed?
Resolution is based on a consensus of official information and credible reporting. If the precise location cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory from the referenced map, the action will not qualify.
How long after a reported strike does the market resolve?
The market normally resolves once a consensus emerges from resolution sources. If reports conflict, it may remain open for up to three full calendar days after the first credible evidence appears to allow the picture to clarify.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice