Israel military action against Lebanon on...?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Israel military action against Lebanon on September 27 at 77.0%.
77.0%+0.5 pts 24h
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 27?
Updated · Volume $534.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 16? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 15? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 11? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 13? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 17? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 21? | 100.0% | +12.5 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 6? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 10? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 14? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 12? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 3? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 5? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 4? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 7? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 9? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 20? | 100.0% | +1.2 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 19? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 22? | 93.5% | +5.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 26? | 91.5% | -3.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 23? | 89.0% | +2.5 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 29? | 83.0% | -2.5 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 25? | 83.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 28? | 81.0% | +0.5 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 24? | 78.0% | +2.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 30? | 77.5% | -4.0 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 27? | 77.0% | +0.5 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on September 18? | 0.0% | -16.5 |
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 28 tracked outcomes and $534.7K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Israel military action against Lebanon on September 27, is priced at 77.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice