Oct 6, 2026
Probability rose from 14.0% to 34.5% — a 20.5-point move over the past day.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price an Israeli troop withdrawal from Lebanon by Jan 1, 2027 at 34.5%; they consider the outcome a substantial minority view. The contract settles based on an Israeli government announcement of a completed pullback by that date.
34.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027?
Updated · Volume $8.5M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027? | 34.5% | -0.5 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2027? | 26.5% | +1.5 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by March 31, 2027? | 17.5% | -1.5 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | 3.1% | -1.3 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome—withdrawal by Jan 1, 2027—dominates the market’s attention, while the other resolution scenarios all remain long shots.
Context
Oct 3, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 3.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Oct 2, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 3.1% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
Sep 29, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 4.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
The contract trades at 34.5% now. Over the tracked period, it has ranged from 18.0% to 36.5%. The market resolves to “Yes” if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by Jan 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a planned or future withdrawal—without confirming completion—does not qualify. The Shebaa Farms area is treated as Israeli territory and is excluded from the requirement. Resolution relies primarily on Israeli government information, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting can also trigger settlement. The approaching Jan 1, 2027 deadline is the key formal condition that could concentrate attention on this market. Any Israeli government statement that meets the specific withdrawal criteria—or credible reports converging on such a conclusion—could drive the probability higher, while the absence of such signals near the cutoff may reinforce current levels.
FAQ
What must happen for this market to resolve to “Yes”?
Israel must announce that all ground forces have been withdrawn from Lebanese territory by the deadline. The Shebaa Farms area is not counted as Lebanese territory for this purpose.
Does a planned withdrawal count?
No, an announcement must confirm that withdrawal has already been completed. A pledge or timeline for future withdrawal does not suffice.
What if Israeli troops remain in Lebanon but Israel says they have left?
The market resolves based on the Israeli government’s announcement, unless there is an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that contradicts it. In such a case, consensus reporting may be used.
What role does the date play?
The deadline is strict: the announcement must occur by 11:59 PM ET on Jan 1, 2027. No announcement by then means the market resolves to “No”.
How is the Shebaa Farms area treated?
Shebaa Farms is considered Israeli territory for this market. Even if Israel withdraws from the rest of Lebanon but maintains a presence there, the “Yes” condition can still be met.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice