Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Cancelled by Dec 31: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 0.0% probability that the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is cancelled by December 31, 2025. The odds represent a substantial minority view, having moved from earlier lows.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
Updated · Volume $4.1M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by January 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The scenario where the ceasefire is cancelled by December 31 holds a substantial minority probability, while the other seven outcomes are each considered very unlikely.
Context
The contract currently trades at 0.0%. The market resolves to Yes if, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, either Israel or Hamas formally announces the ceasefire's cancellation, or a consensus of credible reporting confirms it is no longer in effect. Otherwise, the market settles as No. Violations of the ceasefire that stop short of a definitive end do not trigger a Yes resolution. Traders will closely watch for official statements from the Israeli government or Hamas, as well as any broad shift in credible media consensus that the ceasefire has collapsed. The resolution deadline is Dec 31, 2026, after which the contract will be settled based on events up to that point.
FAQ
What triggers a Yes resolution?
Either an official announcement by Israel or Hamas that the ceasefire is cancelled, or a consensus of credible reporting that the truce has ended, so long as this occurs before the resolution deadline.
Are ceasefire violations enough to resolve the market to Yes?
No. Only a definitive cancellation announcement or a wide consensus of credible reporting that the ceasefire has ended qualifies.
When does the market close?
The market is scheduled to resolve after the deadline of October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, based on events up to that moment.
What happens if no cancellation is announced by the deadline?
The market will resolve to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice