Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 24.0% to 14.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Israel–Hamas Ceasefire Cancellation: Live Probability
Markets price the chance of Israel or Hamas formally ending the ceasefire at 0.0%, a figure that leaves the contract effectively ruled out.
0.0%0.0 pts 24h
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
Updated · Volume $4.1M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by January 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market is focused almost entirely on whether the ceasefire will be cancelled, with the handful of other scenarios all trading as long shots.
Context
Aug 12, 2026
Probability fell from 26.0% to 14.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 18.0% to 22.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 27.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: What now as Israel rejects Trump’s 15-point plan for Gaza? — Al Jazeera
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 16.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 15.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 18.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 29.5% to 19.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Hamas agrees to Trump’s plan to disarm in Gaza – The Latest — The Guardian
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 31.5% to 21.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 43.5% to 31.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
The headline probability stands at 0.0%,. This market resolves to Yes if either Israel or Hamas announces the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the ceasefire is no longer in effect. Mere reports of violations do not settle the question—only a definitive statement from one of the parties, or a broad journalistic consensus that the deal is dead, will trigger resolution. The primary source is official information from Hamas or the Israeli government, though credible reporting may also be used. The cut-off is Jan 1, 2027. As the deadline approaches, the probability may react to any statements or leaks from the involved governments or from authoritative media that signal an intention to cancel. The resolution source—primarily official channels—means that the market is sensitive to diplomatic rhetoric and sudden escalations in public messaging. Any formal announcement that meets the stated criteria would immediately move the number, while a lack of clarity as time runs out would leave it finely balanced until the close.
FAQ
What counts as a cancellation?
Either an explicit announcement by Israel or Hamas that the ceasefire is over, or a consensus among credible news outlets that the ceasefire has effectively ended.
Does a ceasefire violation trigger a Yes resolution?
No. Reports of violations alone are insufficient; there must be a definitive cancellation announced by one of the parties or a strong journalistic consensus that the ceasefire is no longer in effect.
Who are the resolution sources?
Official statements from the Israeli government or Hamas are the primary sources. If neither side makes a formal declaration, a wide consensus of credible reporting can also settle the market.
What happens if neither side makes a definitive announcement?
If, by the resolution date, there is no official cancellation and no consensus of credible reporting that the ceasefire has ended, the market resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice