Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Phase II: Prediction Market Probabilities

A Phase I ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was announced on October 8, halting active fighting, enabling a partial Israeli pullback, prisoner exchanges, expanded aid, and hostage releases. A second phase, yet to be negotiated, is expected to cover further Israeli withdrawals, disarmament of Hamas, and new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. The prediction market asking whether Phase II will be agreed by various dates shows a distinct pattern: all deadlines up to June 30, 2025, carry a 0.0% probability, reflecting a near-certainty among traders that no deal will materialise in the first half of this year. The July 31 deadline climbs to 22.5%, and the December 31 deadline edges up to 26.5%. The roughly flat curve between July and December suggests that, if an agreement is to be reached, the market sees no particular rush—it is as likely to take until the end of the year as it is to be struck by mid-summer. Total volume across the market is just under $2.8 million, indicating robust attention to the diplomatic process. The modest probabilities overall imply a deeply sceptical view of the negotiations, with consensus leaning heavily against a comprehensive deal in the near term. The market resolution rules require a publicly acknowledged mutual agreement, either directly or via recognised mediators, that goes beyond the Phase I truce and is described as completing “Phase 2.” An extension of Phase I alone would not qualify. The base market description sets an October 31, 2025 deadline for resolution, but the active trading is concentrated on the later dates, with the October contract itself sitting at 0.0%.