Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 4.0% — a 1.1-point move over the past day.
Israel x Hezbollah Diplomatic Meeting: Live Probability
Markets price the probability of an Israel-Hezbollah diplomatic meeting at 4.2% by Oct 1, 2026, a level traders regard as a long shot.
4.2%+0.8 pts 24h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
Updated · Volume $98.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | 4.2% | +0.8 |
| Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market focuses on the a long shot scenario of an official meeting, leaving other outcomes in negligible territory.
Context
Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 1.7% to 4.7% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 17, 2026
Probability fell from 4.0% to 0.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 1.1% to 4.0% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 1.1% to 3.8% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 1.5% to 3.7% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 4.8% to 8.7% — a 3.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 50.0% to 10.0% — a 40.0-point move over the past day.
The probability sits at 4.2% after trading in a range from 0.3% to 50.0% over its lifetime. For a Yes resolution, the contract requires a deliberate diplomatic meeting between official representatives of Israel and Hezbollah, each authorized to negotiate on behalf of their respective side. Both direct encounters and indirect meetings through mediators are eligible — but indirect meetings must involve representatives from both entities physically present in the same facility, venue, or city on the same day, with the intermediary facilitating communication on that day. The rules exclude chance interactions, mere greetings or photo opportunities, remote communications, and any sessions of standing multilateral bodies (such as the UN General Assembly or G20 summits) unless a separate, qualifying bilateral meeting occurs alongside. Resolution will draw on official statements from Israel or Hezbollah, or a consensus of credible reporting if official sources are silent. The only hard deadline is the market's expiry at 11:59 PM ET on Oct 1, 2026. Beyond the clock, traders watch for any credible signals that a meeting meeting the physical co-location and authorization standards is being arranged, as those would directly influence the resolution source consensus.
FAQ
What defines an "official representative" for this market?
The rules require the individuals to act in an official capacity and be authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of Israel or Hezbollah's governing authorities.
Does a meeting conducted through a mediator qualify?
Yes, if the mediator acts with the knowledge and authorization of both sides, and representatives from both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city on the same day with communications conveyed by the intermediary.
What types of exchanges are explicitly excluded?
Chance encounters, greetings, courtesies, photo opportunities, remote meetings (e.g., by telephone), and sessions of standing international organizations or recurring summits (like UNGA or G20) are all excluded, unless a separate qualifying meeting is held alongside.
How will the market be resolved?
Resolution will be based on official information from Israel or Hezbollah; a consensus of credible reporting can also serve as the primary resolution source.
Is there a deadline for the meeting to occur?
Yes, the meeting must take place on or before Oct 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Any meeting after that does not count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice