Israel vs. Hezbollah Permanent Peace Deal by 2026: Odds & Probability
An Israeli-Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 traded at 0.0%, leaving it effectively ruled out.
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Updated · Volume $10.0M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The market's headline outcome—a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026—was the only possibility with meaningful trading interest, finishing at 0.0% and effectively ruled out; all other scenarios were priced as negligible tails.
Context
The probability of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah settled at 0.0%, sitting in the effectively ruled out category. Trading volume reached $10.0M. To resolve as a "Yes," the market required an agreement that explicitly ended military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis, or used equivalent language clearly signaling a permanent cessation. Temporary ceasefires, including extensions of the 10-day ceasefire announced on April 16, 2026, did not count. Qualifying agreements needed either a signed or formally adopted written treaty, or clear public confirmation from both sides that a definitive deal had been established. Reporting from official Israeli government and Hezbollah sources, or a consensus of credible media, served as the primary resolution guide.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It measured the likelihood of Israel and Hezbollah reaching a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026. A permanent deal means an agreement that permanently ends military hostilities, not a temporary ceasefire.
How did the market resolve?
It resolved to “Yes” if the required agreement was reached and confirmed by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolved to “No.” The resolution relied on official statements from Israel and Hezbollah, or credible media consensus if official sources were insufficient.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice