Israel-Hezbollah Peace Deal Odds: Just 1.5% by July 2026

The market asks whether Israel and Hezbollah will sign a permanent peace deal by a series of deadlines stretching into mid-2026. A qualifying agreement must explicitly end military hostilities on a lasting basis; temporary ceasefires—including the 10-day truce announced on April 16, 2026—do not count. As it stands, the only contract with a non-zero price is the one expiring July 31, 2026, at 1.5%. All nearer-term outcomes—April 26, May 31, June 15, June 30—are priced at 0%. In other words, traders assign no probability to a permanent settlement in the coming months, and only a sliver of a chance even over a longer horizon. The total volume traded on this market exceeds $9.8 million, so these numbers reflect real money behind the consensus, not a thin market. The 0% prices for the earliest dates suggest that the recent ceasefire has not altered the outlook for a durable agreement. The 1.5% tick for late July indicates that some tiny possibility persists, but it is barely distinguishable from zero. The market’s strict definition matters. A pattern of rolling ceasefires, however prolonged, would not resolve the market to Yes. That structural feature likely explains why the probabilities are so low: traders see a permanent halt to hostilities as extremely unlikely under current conditions. The spread of outcomes paints a picture of entrenched pessimism. No deadline, however distant, attracts much interest, and the idea of a deal within weeks or months is entirely written off.