Israel-Iran Ceasefire Through July 20: Live Odds
Markets price the Israel-Iran ceasefire lasting through July 20 at 100.0%, a near-certain level.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Updated · Volume $26.3M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 97.0% | -0.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 87.0% | -0.5 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 80.5% | +6.0 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 70.5% | +1.0 |
Through July 29, all listed dates are near-certain to see the ceasefire hold; the July 30 and 31 contracts remain strongly favored but show the only noticeable moderation.
Context
The contract has been remarkably stable. It has traded between 39.0% and 70.5% over the period. As of 5 min ago, it stands at 100.0%. The market resolves 'Yes' if no qualifying military action occurs by the listed date, ending at 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying action is a direct airstrike or surface-to-surface missile strike by Israel or Iran that impacts the other's terrestrial territory. Intercepted munitions, ground operations, cyber attacks, and artillery are carved out. Resolution draws on official information from both governments and militaries, plus credible reporting. Conflicting reports can extend the resolution window by up to three calendar days. Any confirmed strike that fits the precise definition would quickly drag the number lower. With no built-in political milestones, the calendar itself is the main driver alongside real-time military monitoring.
FAQ
What constitutes a breach of the ceasefire?
Only a direct airstrike or surface-to-surface missile strike by Israel or Iran that impacts the other's terrestrial territory. Interceptions before impact do not count, nor do ground incursions, cyber operations, or artillery fire.
Does an intercepted drone or missile reset the ceasefire?
No. Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact are explicitly excluded, as are debris or wreckage that falls after interception.
How are territorial disputes handled?
The market considers territory under each state's de facto control as of the market's creation. Maritime and airspace are not included.
What happens if reports about a strike conflict?
The market may remain open for up to three calendar days to reach a consensus from official sources and credible reporting. If conflicts persist, it resolves based on the totality of information at that point.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the listed date passes with no qualifying military action, or earlier if such an action is confirmed before the deadline.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice