Israel-Iran Permanent Peace Deal: Odds & Probability

The market gauges the likelihood that Israel and Iran will agree to a definitive and lasting end to military hostilities. A permanent peace deal, as defined by the market rules, requires an agreement that explicitly indicates that military hostilities have ended or will permanently cease. Qualifying events include a signed treaty or a clear public confirmation from both governments. Negotiations or statements of progress alone are not enough. The primary resolution source is official information from Israel and Iran, but a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. Total trading volume across related contracts stands at roughly $12 million, indicating meaningful liquidity. Current prices reveal a stark picture. For deadlines through June 30, 2026, the probability is 0%. Even the full-year 2026 outcome (December 31) is at zero. The only flicker of expectation lands on the July 31, 2026 deadline, where the chance is 1.4%. That lone non-zero reading suggests traders see virtually no path to an early or even a late-year agreement. In fact, the gap between the July and December contracts is noteworthy: extending the horizon to the end of the year adds no further probability. This implies that if a deal does not happen by mid-2026, the market expects it simply will not happen at all. The zeroes on nearer-term outcomes reinforce the view that any diplomatic breakthrough is, at present, far off.