Israel-Iran Peace Deal: Market Probability
Markets price the chance of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran by May 31, 2026 at 0.0%, a probability viewed as effectively ruled out.
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $12.2M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The Yes outcome for a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 is effectively ruled out; all other scenarios are priced as remote tail risks.
Context
The contract has spent its life in territory traders consider effectively ruled out. The market resolves to Yes only if Israel and Iran strike a definitive, lasting end to military hostilities. A qualifying agreement requires either a signed written pact or clear public confirmation from both governments that hostilities will cease permanently. Temporary measures, ceasefires, or negotiation progress do not count. Inclusion in a broader multi‑party deal suffices. The primary resolution sources are official announcements from the two governments, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If no qualifying event occurs by May 31, 2026, the market settles at No.
FAQ
What qualifies as a permanent peace deal?
Any written agreement or joint public confirmation by Israel and Iran that explicitly ends military hostilities on a lasting basis. Temporary ceasefires or statements of progress do not meet the threshold.
How is the agreement verified?
Resolution relies primarily on official information from the Israeli and Iranian governments. A consensus of credible reporting can also serve as a source.
What happens if the deadline passes?
The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by May 31, 2026.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice