Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 12.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Will Israel and Turkey Clash Militarily by 2027?
Markets assign a 12.5% probability to an armed clash between Israel and Turkey by the end of 2026, an outcome considered unlikely. The contract defines a qualifying encounter as any use of force, from missile strikes to direct fire, between the two countries' militaries.
12.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $417.2K
The clash scenario is unlikely, while the status quo of no direct military conflict continues to absorb nearly all of the market's implied probability.
Context
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 13.5% to 22.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Since launch, the contract has traded between 10.5% and 22.5%. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a military encounter, as strictly defined, occurs by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include missile strikes, artillery fire, gunfire exchanges, or other direct engagements. Non-violent actions—warning shots, artillery into uninhabited areas, or missiles landing in territorial waters—do not count. Intentional ship ramming qualifies only if it causes significant damage or sinking; minor scrapes or dents are excluded. The resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. Any development that makes a qualifying clash more or less likely before Jan 1, 2027 moves the probability. The final settlement is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the clock stopping at the end of 2026.
FAQ
What counts as a military encounter?
Any use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, or exchange of gunfire between Israeli and Turkish forces.
Do warning shots or non-violent incidents qualify?
No. Warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches into territorial waters do not trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
How is intentional ship ramming treated?
It qualifies only if it causes significant damage—a hole in the hull or sinking. Minor damage like scrapes or dents does not count.
When and how does the market resolve?
The market resolves after December 31, 2026, based on whether a qualifying encounter occurred by that date. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice