Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 9.8% to 2.9% — a 6.9-point move over the past day.
Israeli Forces Enter Choukine by July 31: Probability
Prediction markets price the likelihood of Israeli ground troops entering the Lebanese municipality of Choukine for military purposes by Sep 30, 2026 at 9.0%, an unlikely outcome. Only physical presence on the ground counts; air and sea operations are excluded.
9.0%-4.8 pts 24h
Israeli forces enter Choukine by September 30?
Updated · Volume $169.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israeli forces enter Choukine by September 30? | 9.0% | -4.8 |
| Israeli forces enter Choukine by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israeli forces enter Choukine by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Israeli forces enter Choukine by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The 'Yes' outcome is priced at an unlikely level; the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 3.8% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 13.8% to 3.5% — a 10.2-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 4.3% to 11.6% — a 7.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability fell from 10.8% to 4.0% — a 6.8-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 22.1% to 13.6% — a 8.4-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 20.3% to 17.5% — a 2.8-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 8.0% to 20.3% — a 12.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 28.0% to 8.5% — a 19.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 9.5% to 30.5% — a 21.0-point move over the past day.
The headline probability currently sits at 9.0%,. It has ranged from 2.1% to 52.0% over the observation period. Trading volume stands at $169.5K. To resolve 'Yes', Israeli military personnel must physically enter Choukine’s territory on the ground for a military purpose by Sep 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Aerial and maritime missions do not count, and undercover operatives are excluded. The primary resolution source is photo or video proof; a consensus of credible reports can also suffice. If the exact timing cannot be confirmed within 48 hours of the market’s close, it resolves to 'No'. The only formal trigger for a 'Yes' resolution is a confirmed, on-the-ground incursion before Sep 30, 2026. Since the market relies on verifiable photographic or video evidence, unconfirmed reports are unlikely to alter the price. As the deadline passes, any remaining uncertainty resolves automatically to 'No'.
FAQ
What qualifies as Israeli forces entering Choukine?
Israeli military personnel must be physically present on the ground within the municipality of Choukine for a military purpose. Aerial or naval operations do not count.
Do air strikes or naval shelling count?
No. Only ground troops inside Choukine satisfy the condition.
What about undercover operatives?
Undercover Israeli assets are explicitly excluded from the definition of entry.
How does the market determine the outcome?
Primarily through photo or video evidence. If such evidence is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting can be used.
What happens if the date of entry cannot be confirmed?
If credible reporting cannot establish a qualifying entry within 48 hours of the market’s end, the market resolves to 'No'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice