Israel Withdraws from Beyond Litani River: Dec 31 Odds
Prediction markets give Israeli forces a 42.5% chance of withdrawing from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by December 31, leaving the outcome close to a coin flip.
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
Updated · Volume $864.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | 42.5% | +5.0 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | 2.9% | +0.5 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15? | 0.0% | — |
The December 31 deadline chance is finely balanced; all other timeframes are priced as remote possibilities.
Context
The headline probability currently stands at 42.5%. It has ranged from 30.5% to 89.5% over the period. Over the last day it moved +5.0 pts. This market resolves to “Yes” if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by December 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves to “No”. An announcement of a planned or future withdrawal does not suffice. The primary resolution source is information from the Israeli government, but an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming withdrawal may also be used. Any formal withdrawal announcement by Israel before that time would settle the market to Yes; failing that, the market resolves to No.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to “Yes” if Israel announces that all its ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by December 31, 11:59 PM ET. If no such announcement is made by then, it resolves to “No”. The announcement itself is sufficient, even if military activity continues or some territory remains under Israeli control.
What happens if Israel only announces a planned withdrawal?
A planned or future withdrawal announcement does not trigger a “Yes” resolution. The market requires an announcement that forces have actually withdrawn, not just a commitment to do so.
Can this market resolve to “Yes” without an official Israeli statement?
Yes. If there is an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israeli forces have withdrawn, that can serve as the resolution source even in the absence of a formal Israeli government announcement.
Does the withdrawal have to be permanent?
No. The market resolves based solely on the announcement of withdrawal. Any subsequent return of forces does not affect the resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice