Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 48.5% to 29.5% — a 19.0-point move over the past day.
Israeli Forces Withdraw from Beyond Litani River: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance of an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by Sep 1, 2026 at 32.5%, a level that makes the outcome a substantial minority view. The market resolves on a formal Israeli announcement of complete ground force withdrawal, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming it.
32.5%-3.5 pts 24h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by October 31?
Updated · Volume $1.3M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by October 31? | 32.5% | -3.5 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | 18.5% | -2.0 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by September 30? | 14.0% | -11.0 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Sep 1, 2026 deadline is the focus of trading, with odds that are a substantial minority view, while the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 24.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 25.0% to 16.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 9.5% to 25.0% — a 15.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 17.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 23.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 18.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 18.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 36.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Lebanese army says troops deploying in 'pilot zone' after Israeli withdrawal — BBC News
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 33.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Trader odds on an Israeli withdrawal from beyond the Litani River by Sep 1, 2026 currently stand at 32.5%. Since the market opened, the probability has swung between 29.0% and 37.0%. In the past day, the figure shifted by -3.5 pts; The line has hovered near the center, consistent with a market that views the question as a substantial minority view. The market resolves to "Yes" if Israel's government announces that all ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by Sep 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A mere statement of intent or a partial drawdown is not enough. If no such announcement appears, or if credible reporting does not coalesce into an overwhelming consensus that a withdrawal happened, the market settles as "No". The primary resolution source is official Israeli information, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The probability can move on any reliable signal that an announcement is forthcoming, or that diplomatic obstacles are hardening. The deadline of Sep 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET is absolute; any withdrawal after that moment does not count. Traders track Israeli official statements and major news outlets, since either can trigger resolution.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It predicts whether Israel will announce a complete withdrawal of its ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date.
How does the market resolve?
It resolves to "Yes" if Israel officially announces the withdrawal, or if there is an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that it has occurred. Otherwise, it resolves to "No".
What counts as a withdrawal?
Israel must announce that all ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River. Partial withdrawals or planned withdrawals do not satisfy the conditions.
What is the deadline?
The withdrawal must be announced by Sep 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Any announcement after that time does not count.
Why might the probability change?
The probability can move based on news of negotiations, military movements, official statements, or reports from trusted media outlets that indicate whether a withdrawal is likely before the deadline.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice