Israeli Parliament Dissolution by July 31: Live Market Odds
Prediction markets give a July 31 Knesset dissolution a 98.6% chance — a reading that marks it as near-certain. The July 17 cutoff is strongly favored at 89.0%, while the July 16 contract is the favored outcome at 70.5%.
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?
Updated · Volume $2.1M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | 98.6% | +2.5 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17? | 89.0% | +6.6 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16? | 70.5% | +19.0 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? | 0.3% | -0.3 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by October 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? | 0.0% | — |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by December 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by February 28? | 0.0% | — |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? | 0.0% | — |
The July 31 contract is near-certain to resolve affirmatively; the July 17 and July 16 deadlines are strongly favored and the favored outcome, respectively, while every other date is a long shot.
Context
The headline contract has traded near-certain all period, hovering between 11.5% and 97.3%. reflects an almost stationary line — no sharp swings, just a slow drift into deeper conviction. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the sitting Knesset is dissolved at any point between September 3 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If dissolution happens outside that window, or not at all by the deadline, it pays 'No'. The primary resolution source is official Israeli government information, with a fallback to a consensus of credible reporting. The contract will settle once Jun 30, 2026 passes, or sooner if official dissolution occurs within the valid window. Any definitive government announcement confirming dissolution during that stretch would lock in a resolution; conversely, if the deadline arrives with no such event, the contract resolves negatively. Shifts in credible reporting that alter the perceived timing could also nudge the price, but the binary condition itself is carved in stone.
FAQ
What does this market actually predict?
It predicts whether the Knesset will be formally dissolved during a specific period — from September 3 to October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
What happens if the Knesset is dissolved before September 3?
The market would resolve to 'No' because the dissolution must occur inside the stated September–October window.
How is dissolution verified?
The official announcement from the Israeli government is the primary source. If that is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible news reports settles the outcome.
When will the market be resolved?
It resolves at the end of the window on Jun 30, 2026, unless a qualifying dissolution is confirmed earlier.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice