Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 4.7% to 6.1% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets put the likelihood that Joseph Aoun is out as President of Lebanon by December 31 at 9.3%, making it unlikely. The contract resolves on official information or credible reporting of any cessation of his presidency, even temporary.
9.3%-0.9 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $32.5K
The only separately traded outcome—that Aoun leaves office—sits in unlikely territory, while the complement (remaining president) is the market’s dominant expectation.
Context
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 4.7% to 6.1% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 6.2% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 4.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
The market has settled at 9.3% after trading between 4.0% and 12.6%, with a -0.9 pts shift over the past day. This market resolves to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period between the market’s creation and the specified end date, regardless of whether the departure is temporary. An announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution to “Yes,” even if the effective date falls later. Detention, effective removal, or permanent prevention from fulfilling duties also qualifies. The resolution source is official information from Aoun and the Lebanese government, though a consensus of credible reporting may be used. What would change the number is any development that aligns with the resolution conditions: the deadline of Dec 31, 2026, announcements of resignation or removal, reports of detention or incapacitation, and shifts in the consensus of credible sources. The market reacts to news that makes any of these formal triggers more or less imminent.
FAQ
What events trigger a “Yes” resolution?
Any cessation of Joseph Aoun’s presidency for any length of time—whether through resignation, removal, detention, or permanent incapacitation—between the market’s creation and the end date results in a “Yes” resolution.
What if an announcement of resignation happens before the end date but takes effect later?
The market resolves to “Yes” immediately upon the announcement, regardless of when the resignation actually takes effect.
How is the outcome determined if there is no official statement?
If official information from Joseph Aoun or the Lebanese government is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting can be used to settle the market.
What happens if Aoun is temporarily unable to perform his duties?
If he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling presidential duties within the market’s timeframe, it qualifies for a “Yes” resolution.
Is a partial or brief absence sufficient for a “Yes”?
Yes—any period of cessation, no matter how short, between market creation and the end date is enough to resolve the market to “Yes.”
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice