Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Odds & probability
The market prices the chance at 3.8%, a long shot. Only an official announcement by the US, not a social media post, would trigger a Yes resolution.
Updated · Volume $35.4M
The Yes outcome is a long shot, making No the overwhelming favorite.
Context
The headline probability sits at 3.8%, a long shot. The market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the United States formally announces that Greenland will come under its sovereignty. The announcement must be an official agreement or action—such as an executive order or signed legislation—not a mere social media post. The transfer of the majority of Greenland's territory from Denmark to US jurisdiction, whether as a state, territory, or other classification, would suffice. Resolution is based on official information from the US, Greenland, and Denmark, or a consensus of credible reporting. The key date is the resolution deadline Jan 1, 2027. Until then, any formal step toward acquisition—such as a treaty signing or legislative vote—could shift the probability. The market is also sensitive to the resolution source: only official government statements or credible consensus reporting count, so ambiguous signals are unlikely to move the price.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves Yes if the US officially announces by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET that Greenland will come under US sovereignty; otherwise No.
What counts as an official announcement?
An executive order, signed legislation, or formal agreement between the US and Denmark. Social media posts alone do not qualify.
What if Greenland is acquired after the deadline?
The announcement must occur before the deadline. A later acquisition would not resolve Yes.
What are the resolution sources?
Official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice