Sep 19, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 3.8% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader by 2026: Odds & Probability
Markets price a change in Pyongyang’s leadership at 4.0%, making it a long shot. The contract resolves Yes if Kim Jong Un is out for any period before Jan 1, 2027.
4.0%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $196.8K
The yes outcome—Kim Jong Un stepping down—is a long shot, with the market overwhelmingly pricing in continuity.
Context
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 3.9% to 6.2% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 2.8% to 6.4% — a 3.7-point move over the past day.
The probability of a leadership change in North Korea has remained in remote territory throughout the contract. The market resolves Yes if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader for any period between the market's creation and Jan 1, 2027. An announcement of resignation or removal before that date triggers immediate Yes resolution, regardless of when the change becomes effective. If he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from performing his duties, that also qualifies. The resolution source is official information from Kim or the North Korean government, though a consensus of credible reporting can suffice. A meaningful change in the odds would require credible signals that meet the market’s resolution criteria—such as an official announcement of his departure or widespread, credible reports that he has been removed or incapacitated. With the deadline set at Jan 1, 2027, any such development within the window would sharply alter the price.
FAQ
What qualifies as Kim Jong Un being 'out' as Supreme Leader?
Any cessation of his role for any period, including resignation, removal, detention, or permanent incapacitation that prevents him from fulfilling the duties of the position.
How does the market handle an announced resignation that hasn't taken effect yet?
The market resolves Yes immediately upon the announcement, even if the resignation becomes effective on a later date.
Who decides the official outcome?
The primary resolution source is official information from Kim Jong Un or the North Korean government, but a consensus of credible reporting can also be used.
Does a temporary disappearance or handover count?
Only if it involves a formal or effective removal from the position for any period. A brief, unconfirmed absence without a change in leadership would not trigger a Yes resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice