Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 4.6% to 7.0% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
Lai Ching-te out as Taiwan President by 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see it as a long shot that Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan by the specified end date (Dec 31, 2026), at 3.8%. The market resolves 'Yes' if he leaves office for any period of time before that date.
3.8%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $105.8K
The market sees Lai's departure as a long shot, with the rest of the probability mass firmly on him staying in office through the end of 2026.
Context
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 5.4% to 3.6% — a 1.8-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 9.6% to 4.0% — a 5.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 4.7% to 9.6% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
As of 9 min ago, the market assigns a 3.8% chance to Lai Ching-te leaving the presidency. The market resolves 'Yes' if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period between its creation and the specified end date (Dec 31, 2026 ET). An announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution to 'Yes,' regardless of when the departure takes effect. Detention or any other permanent prevention from fulfilling presidential duties also qualifies. The official outcome is determined by information from Lai and the Taiwan government, or a consensus of credible reporting if necessary. Any credible sign that Lai might leave office—whether through resignation, removal, or incapacitation—would push the probability higher. The market's sensitivity is tied to the resolution source: official statements or widely accepted media reports. With the end date fixed at Dec 31, 2026, the timeline itself acts as a countdown, concentrating attention on events that could trigger a 'Yes' before the window closes.
FAQ
What triggers a "Yes" resolution?
The market resolves "Yes" if Lai Ching-te stops being President of Taiwan for any length of time before the resolution date, whether through resignation, removal, or incapacitation.
Does a temporary absence count?
Yes, even a very brief departure from office is sufficient, as the condition is any period of time.
How quickly does the market resolve if an event occurs?
The market resolves immediately upon the announcement of resignation or removal, regardless of the effective date.
Who or what determines the final outcome?
Resolution relies on official information from Lai and Taiwan’s government, or on a consensus of credible reporting if those sources are unclear.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice