Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Amal Movement at 0.9% to secure the largest bloc in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, placing it well into effectively ruled out territory. The vote is anticipated in May 2026, though final results must be known by Nov 1, 2026 for this market to resolve to a named party.
Updated · Volume $677.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.9% | 0.0 |
| Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.2% | -0.1 |
| Will Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Armenian Revolutionary Federation win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Lana – Social Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Mada Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Popular Nasserist Organization win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Marada Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Dignity Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Independence Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Islamic Charitable Projects Association win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Khatt Ahmar win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Union Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Islamic Group win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party P win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party T win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Q win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party R win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party S win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Amal Movement remained a long shot to win the most seats, while the remaining parties were all effectively ruled out.
Context
The Amal Movement's chances of landing the most seats stand at 0.9%, a reading that kept it firmly in remote territory. Trading was thin, with volume around $677.3K and a 24-hour shift of 0.0 pts. This made the Shiite party a distant prospect in a contest where none of the dozen-odd participants registered a meaningful probability. Resolution follows a straightforward hierarchy: the party—or in some cases a coalition—that wins the greatest number of seats in parliament takes the market. A tie first goes to total valid votes, then to alphabetical order of the party abbreviation. If no definitive outcome is known by Nov 1, 2026, the market resolves to "Other". The Lebanese Ministry of Interior is the ultimate arbiter, though credible reporting can suffice. Coalition mechanics are detailed: when a listed party joins with unlisted groups, the listed party's market absorbs all coalition seats; if two listed parties campaign together, the one with more seats in the prior parliament claims the haul.
FAQ
How does this market determine a winner?
It resolves to the party—or, under coalition rules, the appropriate listed entity—that wins the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election. If two parties tie, the one with more valid votes prevails; a further tie is settled by alphabetical order of the abbreviation.
What is the deadline for a result?
If the election outcome is not known conclusively by Nov 1, 2026, the market resolves to "Other".
Which official source confirms the result?
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but if that proves ambiguous, the official results published by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities will be used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice