Lebanon Election Winner: Market Odds & Probability
The probability that Lebanese Forces wins the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election stands at 1.8%, rendering the outcome effectively ruled out as of 14 min ago. The market’s terms set a resolution deadline of May 31, 2026.
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
Updated · Volume $620.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 1.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 1.7% | +0.4 |
| Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Mada Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Union Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Marada Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Islamic Charitable Projects Association win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Taqaddom Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Popular Nasserist Organization win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Armenian Revolutionary Federation win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Dignity Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Islamic Group win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Independence Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Khatt Ahmar win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Lana – Social Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party S win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party R win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party Q win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Other win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party P win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party T win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | 0.0% | — |
Lebanese Forces holds a effectively ruled out probability, while all other possible winners are grouped in the tail end of the market, none attracting any significant probability.
Context
The price for a Lebanese Forces majority has remained at 1.8%. Volume totalled $620.5K USD. The market resolves to the party that captures the most seats in Lebanon’s next parliament. If a tie occurs, it is broken first by the number of valid votes, then by alphabetical order of the party abbreviation. Coalition arrangements are handled explicitly: a listed party running with unlisted partners claims all coalition seats; if two listed parties join together, the one with more seats in the prior parliament gets the tally. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, failing which the official results from the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities are used. Any outcome not known definitively by May 31, 2026 resolves as 'Other'. The publication of results—either through credible consensus or the interior ministry—and the hard deadline of May 31, 2026 are the only formal triggers identified in the market’s terms. No other scheduled events or criteria would directly shift the probability; the price reacts only to new information about seat projections.
FAQ
How does the market decide which party won?
It looks for the party with the most parliamentary seats. Tie-breaking uses valid votes, then alphabetical order of the party abbreviation.
What happens if the results are not clear by the deadline?
If no definitive result is established by May 31, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other'.
How are election coalitions treated?
If a listed party contests as part of a coalition with unlisted parties, the market for that party counts all seats won by the coalition. When two listed parties run together, the credit goes to the one with the higher seat count in the previous parliament.
What is the primary source for resolution?
The market first consults a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, it defaults to the official results from the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice