Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 23.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Maduro Guilty of All Counts: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in his U.S. indictment at 20.5%. The market resolves based on the initial court verdict, independent of any appeals.
20.5%-3.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $133.1K
Markets see a 'Yes' outcome — Maduro convicted on all counts — as a substantial minority view. The rest of the probability lies with a 'No', reflecting the steep requirement of a unanimous guilty verdict across every charge.
Context
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 17.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 16.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 23.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 28.5% to 17.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 28.0% to 19.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 22.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 38.5% to 26.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 24.5% to 38.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
The probability currently stands at 20.5%. It has traded between 15.0% and 34.5% over the period. In the last day, it shifted -3.5 pts. This market resolves to 'Yes' if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment. Any other outcome — including acquittal on any count, a partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, dismissal, or no trial at all — resolves to 'No'. Only the initial verdict matters; appeals have no effect. The resolution source is official U.S. court information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used in its absence. The key deadline is Dec 31, 2027. If a verdict of guilty on all counts is delivered by then, the market resolves 'Yes'; otherwise it settles as 'No'. The outcome hinges on the court's decision as reported through official channels or credible media consensus.
FAQ
What does "guilty of all counts" mean?
It means Nicolás Maduro must be convicted on every single charge in the indictment. A conviction on fewer than all counts — even a single acquittal — leads to a 'No' resolution.
What if the trial hasn't started by the resolution date?
If no verdict is reached by the deadline, or if there is no trial at all, the market resolves to 'No'.
Do appeals affect the outcome?
No. The market resolves on the initial verdict only. Any subsequent appeals, reversals, or further proceedings are ignored.
How is the verdict confirmed?
The primary source is official information from the U.S. court system. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible news reporting is used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice