Maduro Prison Sentence: Market-Implied Odds

Prediction markets price Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time at 59.0%.

59.0%+7.5 pts 24h

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?

Updated · Volume $739.5K

33%50%66%83%Aug 21Aug 29Sep 5Sep 13Sep 20
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?59.0%+7.5
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?24.0%-11.5
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?8.8%-0.7
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?1.1%+0.1
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?0.9%-1.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.

Context

Sep 20, 2026

Probability rose from 51.5% to 74.5% — a 23.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 7, 2026

Probability rose from 39.0% to 41.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 6, 2026

Probability rose from 26.5% to 40.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.

Aug 18, 2026

Probability rose from 37.5% to 42.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.

Aug 17, 2026

Probability rose from 38.5% to 43.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Aug 16, 2026

Probability fell from 42.5% to 37.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.

Aug 15, 2026

Probability rose from 39.5% to 43.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.

Aug 15, 2026

Probability rose from 39.5% to 41.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.

Jul 31, 2026

Probability fell from 44.5% to 39.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.

Jul 30, 2026

Probability rose from 30.0% to 44.5% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $739.5K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time, is priced at 59.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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