Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 39.0% to 41.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Maduro Prison Sentence: Market-Implied Odds
Prediction markets price Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time at 48.5%.
48.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
Updated · Volume $729.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | 48.5% | -0.5 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? | 38.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? | 8.0% | -1.0 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? | 3.5% | -0.5 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? | 2.0% | +1.1 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 26.5% to 40.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 42.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 38.5% to 43.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 42.5% to 37.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 43.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 41.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 44.5% to 39.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 30.0% to 44.5% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 30.0% to 43.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $729.3K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time, is priced at 48.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice