Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 16.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Mahmoud Abbas Out as Palestinian President: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance that Mahmoud Abbas will leave the Palestinian presidency by year’s end at 14.5%, making it unlikely. An announcement of resignation or removal before that date would resolve the market immediately.
14.5%+3.5 pts 24h
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?
Updated · Volume $142.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? | 14.5% | +3.5 |
| Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The probability that Abbas leaves office is modest, while all other possibilities combined are viewed as remote.
Context
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 21.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 16.0% to 24.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Markets have priced this event’s likelihood between 11.0% and 18.0% over the observed period. The probability drifted by +3.5 pts in the last day, reflecting $142.4K in total trading volume. Data as of 16 min ago. The contract settles to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any length of time between market creation and the closing date. An announcement of his resignation or removal resolves the market immediately, regardless of the effective date. Permanent detention or inability to perform duties also triggers a “Yes” outcome. The formal conditions that could move the market include official statements from Abbas or the authorities, or a consensus among credible reports. The market’s terminal date is Jan 1, 2027.
FAQ
What qualifies as “ceasing to be President” for this market?
Any period during which Abbas does not hold the office, including resignation, removal, or permanent incapacitation, even if temporary.
Does the resignation have to take effect before the end date?
No. An announcement before the end date resolves the market to “Yes” immediately, regardless of when the change goes into effect.
What sources are used to determine the outcome?
Official information from Abbas or the Palestinian National Authority, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Can the market resolve early?
Yes, as soon as a qualifying event is announced within the market’s timeframe.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice