Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Masoud Pezeshkian Out by December 31: Odds & Probability
The likelihood of him leaving office by year-end is 7.0% — unlikely. A resignation or effective removal would resolve the market 'Yes' instantly.
7.0%-3.5 pts 24h
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
Updated · Volume $870.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | 7.0% | -3.5 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline scenario, that he leaves office by year-end, is unlikely, while all other market outcomes are remote long shots.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 22.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 26.5% to 18.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 25.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 14.5% to 38.5% — a 24.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 15.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 16.5% to 22.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
The market considers the scenario unlikely, now at 7.0%. It has traded between 7.5% and 27.5% over the observed period. The contract resolves to 'Yes' if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be president for any duration before the market closes. An announcement of resignation or removal settles it as 'Yes' immediately, regardless of the effective date. Detention, effective removal, or any permanent prevention from carrying out presidential duties also triggers a 'Yes'. The primary resolution sources are official statements from the president and Iran's government, but a consensus of credible reporting can be used. The end date is Jan 1, 2027. Until then, any official or credible report of the president leaving his post would push the probability toward certainty. In the absence of such events, the 'No' outcome remains the default.
FAQ
What triggers a 'Yes' resolution?
Any cessation of Masoud Pezeshkian's presidency before the market's end date, including resignation, removal, or incapacitation that permanently prevents him from fulfilling the role.
Does a temporary departure count?
Yes, the rules specify that any period of cessation, no matter how brief, qualifies. An announcement of resignation resolves the market immediately, even if the effective date is later.
How is the outcome determined?
Official information from Masoud Pezeshkian or the Iranian government, or a consensus of credible reporting, serves as the resolution source.
What happens if he remains in office through the end date?
The market resolves to 'No'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice