Masoud Pezeshkian Out by December 31? Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Masoud Pezeshkian leaves the presidency of Iran by the end of the year at 18.5%, placing it in the unlikely category. The market resolves Yes if he resigns, is removed, detained, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties at any point before the deadline.
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
Updated · Volume $848.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | 18.5% | +1.0 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
Beyond the headline outcome, the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
The market’s assessment of Masoud Pezeshkian leaving office sits at 18.5%. It has traded in a range from 12.0% to 29.5% across the period. The line has largely hovered in the unlikely range, reflecting a modest perceived risk. This market resolves to Yes if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date immediately resolves the market Yes, regardless of when the resignation goes into effect. If he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the presidency, that also triggers a Yes. The resolution relies on official information from Pezeshkian or the Iranian government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The market’s cutoff is Dec 31, 2026. Any formal resignation, removal, detention, or incapacitation of Pezeshkian before that date would force a Yes. The resolution source—official statements or credible media consensus—adds a layer of interpretation: ambiguous events could cause volatility if reports conflict.
FAQ
What triggers a Yes resolution in this market?
The market resolves Yes if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period between market creation and the specified end date. This includes resignation, removal, detention, or being permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties. An announcement of resignation or removal before the end date resolves the market immediately, even if the departure takes effect later.
What happens if Pezeshkian is temporarily unable to serve, such as due to illness?
The market only resolves Yes if he is permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties. A temporary absence, such as a short illness or travel, would not trigger a Yes unless it led to a permanent removal from the presidency.
How is the outcome determined if official information is unclear?
The primary source is official information from Pezeshkian or the Iranian government. If such information is unavailable or ambiguous, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether a qualifying event occurred.
Does the market consider events after the end date?
No. Only events that occur before the specified end date (ET) count. A resignation or removal after that date would not resolve the market to Yes.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice