Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 18.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Miguel Díaz-Canel Out as Cuba Leader: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the likelihood that Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves his post as First Secretary of Cuba's Communist Party at 16.5%. That is unlikely among traders.
16.5%0.0 pts 24h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Updated · Volume $2.1M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | 16.5% | 0.0 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The scenario in which Díaz-Canel leaves power holds a substantial minority view, while the remaining outcomes are all long shots.
Context
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 16.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
The probability that Díaz-Canel leaves power currently stands at 16.5%. The market resolves to “Yes” if Díaz-Canel is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date. Removal covers resignation, detention, or otherwise ceasing to hold the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, or being publicly reported unable to perform its duties. A consensus of credible reporting serves as the resolution source. The probability could shift as the resolution date of Jan 1, 2027 approaches, or if credible reports emerge regarding Díaz-Canel’s status. Any development that meets the resolution criteria would move the number.
FAQ
What does this market measure?
The probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves his position as First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba by the specified deadline.
How is “removed from power” defined?
It includes resignation, detention, or being publicly reported unable to perform the duties of First Secretary.
When does the market resolve?
At the earliest of the listed end date or when the criteria are met, per a consensus of credible reporting.
What if he is only temporarily sidelined?
The market resolves “Yes” if he is out for any length of time by the deadline.
Who reports the outcome?
A consensus of credible reporting is used, avoiding reliance on a single source.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice