Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 12.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by 2026? Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Miguel Díaz-Canel exits Cuba’s presidency at 15.0% — unlikely that he steps down by the deadline.
15.0%0.0 pts 24h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31?
Updated · Volume $374.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? | 15.0% | 0.0 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
unlikely that Díaz-Canel leaves office within the window; the alternative scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 10.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 33.5% to 23.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 24.0% to 35.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 24.5% — a 15.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 28.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 26.0% to 39.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 49.5% to 26.0% — a 23.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 23.0% to 49.5% — a 26.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 50.5% to 35.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has fluctuated in a limited range, with 15.0% at the latest reading. It has traded between 8.5% and 46.5% over the observed period. In the last 24 hours, it moved 0.0 pts. The market resolves ‘Yes’ if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President for any length of time between November 18, 2025 and Jan 1, 2027. An announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline triggers an immediate ‘Yes’ resolution, regardless of when the departure takes effect. Resolution depends on official statements from the Cuban government or, failing that, a consensus of credible reporting. The market price reflects the assessed probability that any of these resolution conditions are met. The formal triggers are the only ones that count: a break in Díaz-Canel’s tenure within the specified window, an official announcement, or a journalistic consensus confirming the change.
FAQ
What are the resolution criteria?
The market settles to ‘Yes’ if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President at any point during the defined window—from the market’s start date through Jan 1, 2027. An announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline immediately resolves the market to ‘Yes’.
What is the source for resolution?
The primary source is the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting also suffices.
Does the market consider temporary removal or death?
Yes, any period of cessation qualifies, including temporary removal, resignation, or death. The rules do not distinguish by cause or duration within the window.
What happens if an announcement is made before the deadline but the departure occurs after?
The market resolves ‘Yes’ upon the announcement, irrespective of the effective date.
What if the government is ambiguous or silent?
The market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting if official channels are unclear.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice