Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.8% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
Milei Out as President Before 2027: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance that Milei ceases to be President of Argentina before 2027 at 3.6%, making it a long shot. The market resolves on any removal or resignation, even if temporary, by the end of Jan 1, 2027.
3.6%-0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $166.5K
The Yes outcome is highly unlikely; the overwhelming implied probability is that Milei remains president through the end of 2026.
Context
Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 5.6% to 3.7% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 2.8% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
The probability stands at 3.6%. The market resolves to Yes if Milei ceases to be president for any length of time before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. An announcement of his resignation or removal before that deadline triggers an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of the effective date. Resolution is based on the government of Argentina, though a consensus of credible reporting also suffices. Traders watch for formal conditions: any credible report or official statement indicating Milei’s departure. The market’s end date is Jan 1, 2027; resolution would come early only from an announcement prior to that. No other events directly alter the contract.
FAQ
What counts as "ceases to be the President" for this market?
Any scenario where Milei is no longer the President of Argentina, including resignation, impeachment, removal by any legal process, or death. The period can be temporary; the market resolves Yes if he leaves office for any length of time.
How quickly does the market resolve after an announcement?
An announcement of his resignation or removal before the market's end date immediately resolves the market to Yes, even if the actual departure is scheduled for a later date.
What sources are used to determine resolution?
The primary source is the government of Argentina. If that is unavailable or ambiguous, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Does the market still resolve No if he remains in office until 2027?
Yes. If no announcement of his departure occurs before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market resolves to No.
What if he resigns and then returns to power?
Any cessation—even temporary—triggers a Yes. A later return does not undo the resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice