Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 6.3% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Modi Out by 2026: Prediction Market Probability
Markets price the chance that Narendra Modi ceases to be India's prime minister before 2027 at 5.5%, an outcome traders deem unlikely.
5.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $252.4K
The 'No' outcome—Modi remains Prime Minister through the end of 2026—dominates the market, leaving the 'Yes' as an unlikely prospect.
Context
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 4.7% to 6.3% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
The probability of Modi leaving office by the end of 2026 currently sits at 5.5%, with a 0.0 pts move in the past day. The line has largely stayed in low single digits, reflecting a view that his position remains secure absent a sudden political shock. This market resolves to 'Yes' if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period between market creation and Dec 31, 2026. An announcement of resignation or removal immediately settles the market to 'Yes', even if the effective date falls later. Detention, incapacitation, or any permanent prevention from fulfilling the duties also qualifies. Resolution relies on official statements from Modi or the Indian government, though a consensus of credible reporting may suffice. Any development that credibly signals Modi's departure—formal resignation, a no-confidence vote, a health crisis, or an extraordinary political event—would likely move the probability sharply higher. The market's resolution date is Dec 31, 2026, but an early resolution occurs if a qualifying event happens before then. The primary resolution sources are official information and, if necessary, credible media reports.
FAQ
How does this market determine if Modi is 'out'?
It resolves to 'Yes' if Modi stops being Prime Minister for any length of time, whether through resignation, removal, detention, or permanent incapacitation. An announcement alone triggers resolution, regardless of when the change takes effect.
What sources are used to decide the outcome?
Official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India is the primary source. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting can be used.
When does this market end?
The market runs until December 31, 2026, but it can settle early if a qualifying event occurs before that date.
What happens if Modi is temporarily unable to serve but returns?
Any period of cessation, no matter how brief, qualifies for a 'Yes' resolution. If he is permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties, that also triggers a 'Yes'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice