Oct 16, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 22.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance: Live prediction market odds
Prediction markets price Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31 at 18.5%.
18.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
Updated · Volume $7.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | 18.5% | -1.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? | 3.0% | -0.7 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 4? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Oct 14, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 18.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 13, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 12, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 21.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Oct 5, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 23, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 19, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 25.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 25.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 15 tracked outcomes and $7.4M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31, is priced at 18.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice