Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 25.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance: Live prediction market odds
Prediction markets price Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31 at 21.5%.
21.5%-1.5 pts 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
Updated · Volume $7.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | 21.5% | -1.5 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? | 11.5% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | 0.7% | +0.3 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 4? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 25.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 23.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 24.0% to 17.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 15 tracked outcomes and $7.0M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31, is priced at 21.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice