Mojtaba Khamenei Public Appearance by Dec 31: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a year-end public sighting of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, a 29.5% chance. Markets see it as a substantial minority view.
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
Updated · Volume $5.7M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | 29.5% | -4.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? | 17.5% | -3.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | 11.5% | -4.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | 5.5% | -2.0 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | 1.5% | -0.8 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 4? | 0.0% | — |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? | 0.0% | — |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? | 0.0% | — |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? | 0.0% | — |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? | 0.0% | — |
The market assigns a substantial minority view to a year-end sighting (29.5%). September and August are seen as unlikely (17.5%) and unlikely (11.5%) respectively, while all earlier deadlines are long shots.
Context
The market asks whether Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, will appear in an authentic, newly captured photo or video within given time windows. Digital live broadcasts qualify; archival, AI-generated, or staged material does not. The headline contract runs through December 31. As of 8 min ago, the year-end contract trades at 29.5%, which the market interprets as a substantial minority view. The contract has ranged between 29.5% and 49.0% during its lifetime, with total volume reaching $5.7M. Meanwhile, the September 30 outcome is priced at 17.5% (unlikely) and the August 31 outcome at 11.5% (unlikely). The declining probabilities as the deadlines tighten reflect the market’s view that a public sighting, while not ruled out, is not imminent. The spread across dates highlights the uncertainty surrounding Khamenei’s public visibility. Even extending the window to year-end only produces a minority probability. The remaining earlier-date contracts are seen as long shots, with negligible odds. These prices imply that market participants do not expect a public appearance in the near term, but they assign some weight to the possibility as the year progresses.
FAQ
What is the market predicting?
It predicts the probability that Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, will be photographed or videotaped in public within various timeframes. The main contract runs through December 31.
What qualifies as a public appearance?
An authentic, newly captured photograph or video released within the market's timeframe. Digital appearances such as live broadcasts count. Archival footage, AI-generated content, and staged reproductions do not.
How does the probability change with different deadlines?
The likelihood declines as the deadline shortens. The market prices a year-end appearance at 29.5% (a substantial minority view), while September 30 stands at 17.5% (unlikely) and August 31 at 11.5% (unlikely).
What happens if an appearance occurs before all deadlines?
If a qualifying event happens before the earliest deadline (August 31), all contracts with later deadlines also resolve to 'Yes' because the condition was met within their windows.
How is the resolution determined?
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting to confirm whether any released media is authentic and meets the market's criteria.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice