Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 6.9% to 3.0% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
Fedorov Reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister: Odds
Prediction markets have settled Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026 at 0.1%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $434.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? | 0.1% | — |
| Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 24, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 17, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 2.5% to 6.9% — a 4.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 7.0% to 4.0% — a 3.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 3.3% to 7.0% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 3.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice