Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 5.0% to 6.1% — a 1.1-point move over the past day.
NATO Article 5 before 2027?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that NATO invokes Article 5 before 2027 at 6.3% — unlikely. The window for such an event runs through Jan 1, 2027.
6.3%-0.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $251.8K
With only a single event in question, the “Yes” contract reflects a unlikely chance of Article 5 being invoked before the deadline, while the “No” contract trades at the complement.
Context
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 6.5% to 4.0% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
The probability currently sits at 6.3%, moving -0.5 pts over the past day. The line has remained stable, with only minor fluctuations. The market resolves to “Yes” if any NATO member country invokes Article 5 between the market’s launch in November 2025 and Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves to “No”. The primary resolution source is official information from NATO (nato.int), though a consensus of credible media reports will also suffice. The market’s price will react to any developments that alter the perceived likelihood of an Article 5 invocation before Jan 1, 2027. The resolution itself turns solely on whether an invocation actually occurs, as confirmed by NATO or credible media. The deadline is firm, with no partial or early settlement unless the event is triggered.
FAQ
What event triggers a “Yes” resolution?
If any NATO member country officially invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty between the market’s launch in November 2025 and the deadline, the market resolves to “Yes”.
How is the resolution determined?
Resolution relies primarily on official NATO announcements (nato.int). If those are ambiguous, a consensus of credible media reports will be used.
Who can invoke Article 5?
Any member nation of NATO can invoke Article 5, which treats an armed attack against one member as an attack against all.
What happens if there is no invocation by the deadline?
The market resolves to “No” if no Article 5 invocation occurs by the deadline specified in the market terms.
What sources confirm an invocation?
Official information from NATO (nato.int) is the primary source. In its absence, a consensus of credible media reports suffices.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice