Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 5.7% to 3.8% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
Will NATO Dissolve Before 2027? Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of NATO dissolving before 2027 at 1.6%, a effectively ruled out. The contract resolves to Yes if the alliance ceases to exist as a legal entity by December 31, 2026.
1.6%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $124.5K
The 'No' outcome commands the market, leaving 'Yes' as a effectively ruled out at 1.6%.
Context
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 3.5% to 6.1% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 3.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 2.1% to 6.4% — a 4.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 1.1% to 3.1% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has remained effectively ruled out throughout its lifetime. The market resolves to Yes if any of three formal conditions are met: more than half of the member states (as of market creation) withdraw, an agreement between all members to repeal the North Atlantic Treaty is adopted, or NATO ceases to exist as a legal entity. Withdrawal is considered initiated when a state submits official notice of denunciation under Article 13, regardless of finalisation timing. The primary resolution source is official information from NATO and member states, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting if necessary. The market's odds hinge solely on whether formal dissolution criteria are met by Jan 1, 2027. These are: a majority withdrawal trigger, a mutual dissolution treaty, or NATO's legal extinction. Until one occurs, the contract remains unresolved. Data last updated 2 min ago.
FAQ
What constitutes NATO dissolving?
The market defines dissolution as more than half of member states (as of market creation) withdrawing, an official treaty nullifying the North Atlantic Treaty, or NATO ceasing to exist as a legal entity.
When does a member state count as having withdrawn?
A state is considered to have withdrawn once it initiates withdrawal and/or provides official notice of denunciation under Article 13, even if the process isn't complete by the market's deadline.
How is the market resolved?
The primary source is official information from NATO and member states; if necessary, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
What is the deadline for dissolution?
The event must occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Does political rhetoric or troop movements affect the outcome?
No. Only formal legal steps—withdrawal notices, treaty repeal, or legal extinction—qualify under the market rules.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice