Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 66.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Next Round of US-Iran Peace Talks by August 31, 2026: Live Odds
Markets price the chance that a new round of senior-level US-Iran peace talks kicks off by Apr 1, 2027 at 60.5%, leaving the outlook the favored outcome. The June 22 Switzerland round produced a roadmap but follow-on technical meetings alone won't settle this market.
60.5%-1.0 pts 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
Updated · Volume $10.6M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? | 60.5% | -1.0 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 41.5% | -1.0 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | 14.0% | -0.5 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline August 31 deadline dominates trading, while the July 31 window attracts a substantial minority of bets (41.5%); the remaining earlier dates are all long shots.
Context
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 72.5% to 61.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 87.0% to 75.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 36.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US-Iran talks in deadlock – what’s the latest? — Al Jazeera
Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 44.5% to 38.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: US-Iran talks in deadlock – what’s the latest? — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 52.5% to 42.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran, US set new conditions during Hormuz talks: What does this mean? — Al Jazeera
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 64.5% to 55.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran issues new demands as Pezeshkian seeks deal — Al Jazeera
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 70.5% to 59.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Iran issues new demands as Pezeshkian seeks deal — Al Jazeera
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 60.5% to 71.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 33.5% to 42.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has moved within a range from 59.5% to 85.5% and now sits at 60.5%. The line remains restless but constrained, consistent with a market that sees no decisive signal yet. The market resolves “Yes” if a formal senior-level round of peace talks between US and Iranian representatives begins by Apr 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. The meeting must be in-person—including indirect in-person diplomacy through intermediaries—involve senior officials authorized to conduct diplomacy, and be deliberately aimed at negotiation. Technical, staff-level, or follow-on talks from the June 22 round do not count. “No” wins if such a round has not started by the deadline. What would move the needle here is straightforward: the clock. With Apr 1, 2027 as the hard cutoff, any credible report of a scheduled senior-level meeting would immediately reprice the contract. The resolution relies on official information from both governments and a consensus of credible media, so traders watch for formal statements or leaks that signal a meeting is being arranged.
FAQ
What qualifies as a formal senior-level round?
A deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting (or indirect in-person contact through mediators) between senior US and Iranian representatives who are officially authorized to negotiate on behalf of their governments. Brief encounters, photo ops, or purely technical talks don't qualify.
Do indirect talks through intermediaries count?
Yes, as long as senior representatives of both countries are participating in the same formal process with their governments' knowledge. The participants need not be in the same room, but remote meetings like phone calls do not count.
Why don’t the June 22 follow-on technical talks count?
The market rules explicitly exclude follow-on technical talks, staff-level working groups, or implementation meetings from the Switzerland round. A new round must be formally convened at the senior level.
When and how does the market resolve?
It resolves after Apr 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on official US and Iranian government statements and a consensus of credible media reports confirming whether a qualifying round began by that deadline.
What sources determine the outcome?
Official information from the US and Iranian governments, supported by a consensus of credible media reporting. If no such round is publicly acknowledged or reported, the market resolves to “No.”
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice